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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Graham who wrote (22078)	8/4/1999 4:37:00 PM
From: Tai Jin	Respond to of 99985

I think as long as brokers keep issuing or maintaining strong buys for the Internet stocks that we have not seen the bottom. I think this is an act of desperation, imho. Once they have capitulated and start to issue holds then we can talk about the market going higher again. ...tai

To: Robert Graham who wrote (22078)	8/4/1999 4:59:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Bob, the captain has constructed a basket of stocks that are a good representation of the 'big money's' intentions and LG too has created an index that has a similar goal in mind. so some of us do this already. i myself have on my quote screen a selection of 40 stocks that represent a cross-section of the market, with all the important sectors represented. by watching these stocks trade throughout the day i usually get a good feel for accumulation/distribution patterns in the market. i usually post these impressions at least once a day. i believe i have also pointed out the various 'warning signs' sent by the market on numerous occasions - as have others. 'liquidation' is a process that is in full force in the i-nuts group, but not yet in other sectors. i have now begun to short the sector that has taken over the speculative baton, namely the semis. this requires some patience, as fund managers are obviously still in love with the group, but statistics and history are on my side. i fully agree with your observation regarding complacency among fund managers. the funds have almost record low cash reserves, and there is anecdotal evidence that funds are borrowing money to meet redemptions and invest in derivatives. no-one is thinking of raising cash yet, in spite of the market's horrible internals. once the idea starts taking hold, a lot of pain is bound to be meted out. perhaps my negativity is misplaced and the bubble will resume it's old course soon. however, i really feel that this aging bull is getting tired and is due for a rest. i just hope it won't get killed in the process. regards, hb

To: Robert Graham who wrote (22078)	8/4/1999 6:19:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Robert Graham: That was a well thought out post, I am not sure where to start with my reply to it. First, your post while well worded and thought out, it really is not an analysis of Market Direction using fundamental and or technical analysis as is the "focus" of this thread. But hey, we know all of this is idle coffee room chit chat, right? I realize some of us take it very seriously. And worthwhile market insight has been offered in the attempt by many to divine the markets. But as I have been reminded by a good trader in the markets, what really matters are the stocks that you are following and trading. Well, I disagree that this thread is "idle coffee room chit chat", completely! Market direction has been called fairly accurately on this thread. However, I do agree (if you are not playing index options/futures, QQQ, DIA, SPY, etc.) that the stocks you are betting on is equally if not more important. But, overall Market direction can and will effect individual stocks. And, that is the "focus" of this thread. I think I have a solution. I propose that we make up a selection of stocks that we follow which will provide us a good profile of the market. We then discuss the market based strictly on the price-volume action of these select group of stocks. The focus will be that of the short term trader. Naturally this profile will in part reflect where much of the action is in the market which is likely to include some of the stocks each of us are following as traders. This will also allow each trader to have something to contribute to the discussion as they talk about their "neck of the woods" in the marketplace SI has stock threads and stock picking threads all over the place. I suggest you find one you like and use it to accomplish your goal or start your own. Please read the thread header for this thread again. I think it will help you understand the "purpose" and "focus" of this thread. Your contributions are appreciated, but please do not try to change the "purpose" and or "focus" of this thread. Good trading.... Regards, LG