Steve,
Thank for recognizing my logic abilities. Unfortunately, I don't have the time to respond to each of your concerns now, but I will try to address some your points in order. If I do not finish tonight, I will try to continue at a latter time. I would hope, however, that others here will also join in , but many of your accusations have been previously answered.
---Your statement, "for starters, how bout the cost of LD calls quickly heading to nothing" . This is an argument that you have posed on this thread many times. Presumably, you believe this is your strongest argument. However, I believe we will see many more years pass before the cost of a long distance call goes to nothing. Yes, the cost of LD calls will rapidly decrease. However, if what you are saying were true, would it not be better for investors to short AT&T, Sprint, or MCI Worldcom, as a much better way to play the cost of LD calls heading to nothing. Since their stock prices are not plummeting, I suggest your arguenent must be flawed. Understand, EXISTING LD Telcos can NOT afford to decrease their charges to existing customers too fast, for fear of undercutting their own revenue stream. The best the existing LD carriers can hope for is to try to slow the inevitable reduction of LD charges. However, this will give IDTC and NTOP many years of growth before what you are forecasting comes to pass. How do you think MCI and Sprint were able to break into the LD business in the first place, without AT&T being able to immediately, and adequately, respond?
---"the big guys will figure out how to make money," Well this is a big leap in faith on your part. You ask us to except your premise that there is a way for them to make money, but your logic here is non existent. Please tell us how the "big guys will figure out a way to make money" and at the same time, IDTC and NTOP will not be able to gain a greater percentage revenue growth? To me, this really is really the crux of whether one owns IDTC or not. I will tell you though, I have written market strategy for AT&T and I can't figure out a way for existing LD companies to head off the challenge from IDT, without self impacting their own revenue base.
---" the little guys will either get bought". Yes we agree here. Eventually, I believe, IDT and NTOP will be bought out by a Telco (or another company). A company who wants to get into the LD market quickly and can not wait to duplicate all the infrastructure that IDT has built. For this type of company, IDTC and NTOP represents a very attractive takeover candidate. And I might add, it should be at a very attractive price for us shareholders. For me I want to make sure that I am an IDTC/NTOP shareholder when that day comes." But it is my opinion, come it must.
--- "or get lost in the shuffle" . I hardly think that with the head start and success that IDT has accomplished so far, that they could get "lost in the shuffle". Certainly, IDT and NTOP will be one of the first companies to be taken over.
---"Secondly and perhaps the most damaging over the short term, lack of adequate hardware base to support the pc based products". Steve, you will have to explain this to me in grater detail, because I don't know what you mean here.
---"Do I own NTOP shares? Yes, as well as many Ks of IDTC. Some I got at the IPO price, others I bought at the opening price of 20 ¾, but later sold them at 26, on the way down. However, today I re-bought all of those NTOP shares, and more, all below 19 1/2.
I will have to continue this discussion at a later time.
Regards,
Jules
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