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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (71963)	8/5/1999 11:20:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Respond to of 164684

If the market sell-off continues into the September-October period, then who knows where AMZN can go? The supply certainly is increasing, both in the number of Amazon shares due to the split and the great number of Internet IPOs. And interest rates are likely to inch up at least .25 and probably .50 by this winter. Commodity prices are increasing along with wages and productivity gains are slackening according to the latest reports. The dollar is weakening which is also inflationary. So we have oil, wages, imports and raw resources, and many commodity prices rising. Food products have resisted inflation and are historically very low when adjusted. But the drought will likely cause many food items to rise and the weakened dollar drives up food imports. Last year the Internet and market were fueled by all these factors being positive while the FED loosened the money supply dramatically. Now we have the reverse happening. So it looks to me that we will get continued selling in the stock market until the excesses are wrung out and many stocks look cheap. I believe we aren't there yet - maybe not even close. Amazon is an emotional stock (as are most Internet stocks). They are priced largely on high future expectations. Judging where the bottom is is as difficult as where the top is. Judging direction is not as difficult. I think Amazon will find strong resistance at 50 which it may hit in Sept-Oct. It will probably rally at some time before then. But that is just a guess. It has about hit my target for a low this summer of 70-80.