Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ahhaha who wrote (13593)	8/5/1999 2:03:00 AM
From: Jan Garrity Allen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Ok........taking bets.......who will ink the deal with Athm ??????????AOL???????YHOO??OR ANOTHER????????The golden ring is on the TV!!!!!!!!<<;-)))))))))))

To: ahhaha who wrote (13593)	8/5/1999 2:27:00 AM
From: RTev	Respond to of 29970

Also, down a similar vein I wouldn't dismiss what ATHM has learned about running a cable network. Good point. ATHM might just turn out to be the gem of the TCI purchase. I don't think AT&T would have created it if they had been in charge back when, but I suspect that some of the T-folks were probably surprised at how much @home has been able to teach them.

To: ahhaha who wrote (13593)	8/5/1999 2:43:00 AM
From: Rippletum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

The two concerns I have with Athm are whether subscribers will sign up in the numbers that are projected and what will become of the open access initiative. I have some concern about subscriber growth, but I feel that it is mostly a function of price. What eases my concern is that ISP profitability seems to increase with scale. For example AOL's profit ratio has been increasing steadily as it adds new customers. It seems that in such an automated business, it can really take advantage of the small incremental cost to each new customer. Further, one person can provide content for 1 million or 50 million subscribers. As a result, I can see the subscription price drifting down as Athm gets more customers. I can also see Athm making the investment of lower subscription prices to gain market share similar to the mantra of Amazon. So I do not think that the concern about subscription growth is warranted as I suspect that it will be encouraged along by price reductions once installer capacity eases up. Certainly, once self installation becomes available we will see efforts to gain share. As for Open Access, it is my view that the Portland ruling will be overturned. Obviously there is risk here, but I do not a municipality can force a company to give up a valuable asset in exchange for an approval to an assignment of rights between two economically viable franchisees. Generally, when you have consent rights over a transfer between parties, your ability to halt such transfer is limited to attaining assurances that the transferee has the economic wherewithal and is able to perform in accordance with the original contract. New conditions are generally not appropriate and could be viewed as an interference with contract, among other things. Of course, there are other reasons why the Portland decision should be overturned but for me, the foregoing argument is sufficient. Furthermore, the recently threatened voter initiatives do not have in the long run much chance at success (even if voters are duped into being pawns of hypocritical fee charging ISPs) because I believe that such efforts would ultimately be a taking that must be bought and paid for and also a de facto fee setting regulatory action which I understand is solely within the purview of the FCC. So at this point, I think that the recent downturn in Athm's stock price is due to a convergence of events which ultimately will pass once it becomes clear that Athm's management's plans and goals begin to materialize. I suspect that we will have a cable modem Christmas. I also think, however, that part of the recent convergence is made up of a deliberate attempt by Athm and T's management to downplay Athm's plans and successes in order to reduce the profile of Athm during the Open access debate and during the approval process of the MediaOne merger. One of the main practical arguments against the Open access initiative is that Athm is currently no monopoly since it is much smaller than AOL and others. Clearly, we have not heard much about an Athm/Worldnet merger and a Roadrunner/Athm merger, although I am sure both are under careful consideration. So when does Athm begin to move up past its July trading range? At the outside, when the MediaOne merger is complete in the first quarter of 2000. But I am hoping for the cable modem christmas.