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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (22167)	8/5/1999 6:03:00 AM
From: RJL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

You'll pardon my french, but are you nuts? "we just had a major correction" Major correction? A few percent on the DOW, and 10% on the Nasdaq and you call that a major correction? Maybe if it had gained 10-15% over the past couple of years, but it was up what...25% YTD before this started. No offense intended, but if you think this is a major correction, you're in for a surprise. "I cannot conceive of the market going down forever" Once again, I must disagree. If anything, we've been going up forever. Like I mentioned above, the Nasdaq has gone pretty much parabolic before this decline and has risen quite impressively since October '98...so I wouldn't consider a 2 week decline 'forever'. I wouldn't be surprised to see a little rebound here shortly, but I wouldn't trust it for an instance if you were going long. Not yet. Way too much downward risk. There's support lines being broken everywhere, and the Internet stocks are getting absolutely destroyed. Rate fears won't go away too quickly, even if the employment number tomorrow isn't as bad as people fear. Worst of all is the dollar problems. Treasury has pretty much said that they won't intervene to prop up the dollar unless things get worse. I wouldn't be surprised to see that come pretty darn quickly. Just my opinions on what's going on...I didn't mean to trash your post or anything, I just disagree. Cheers, Rich

To: American Spirit who wrote (22167)	8/5/1999 6:24:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

American Spirit, I went long at the close on a small position of OEX CALLS for a intraday/1 day bounce. I still believe that the upside can be played depending on how nimble one is. For the last 3 days we have had nice intraday bounces, which flopped toward the close. These intraday swings are still playable and hopefully one of these intraday swings will hold for a day or 2 or more. But to say that this correction is close to being over, I do not see any technical evidence of such. Important trendlines have been pierced to the downside, 50 DMA's broken, support lines broken, etc. You could still be right but first we should see how the next short-term cycle performs. If we get both LOWER HIGHs and LOWER LOWs for the next cycle, the downtrend on a technical basis is still intact and in that case, trying to guess the bottom then would not be the safest approach as it is now. I very confident that the next short-term cycle(15 days), which should start soon, will not set new highs, but more importantly will it set LOWER LOWs. If it does not set LOWER LOWs, then that could be a hint that some sort of a bottom has been set, whether its only a short-term bottom or something more significant. I still see some sort of a bounce soon, although per my short-term BUY signal the response is late and may be negated by the NAZ. Such poor response to my CLASS BUY signal implies that the negativity will continue, not to say that there wont be a bounce at all. seeya