To: tero kuittinen who wrote (2009 ) 8/7/1999 3:45:00 PM From: Maurice Winn Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 34857
Tero, Hong Kong is exceptional. The first CDMA network in December 1995. As a test for CDMA it has become irrelevant. There is more to a CDMA network than whether CDMA is a good thing or not. Pricing, handset design, network design, network technology [it has the old ASICs] and the interaction with competitors is what will determine the success of it. Plus the myriad other factors which affect success in a business. I'm not familiar with the details of the Hong Kong network and am not worried about the reason it hasn't taken over from the competing networks. There are sufficient other very successful CDMA networks and the growth rate of CDMA subscribers shows that it works. Singapore put off the installation of CDMA until the 3G issues were settled. Wisely in my opinion. The minutes used growth rate was not so high that they had to make an immediate decision for extra capacity. GSM gives pretty good phone service. They can improve GSM capacity by various techniques to prolong the GSM investment. New Zealand, Australia, China and the rest will be using spiffing new Ericy infrastructure, or Samsung, LG, Lucent, etc with the latest ASICs and software and optimized layouts. The handsets will be ThinPhones or better. There will be a cheap pathway to cdma2000 [or VW40 if it ever gets out of committee rooms niggling over chip rates and the other bits and pieces and into an ASIC factory]. In early 1996, I was about to fly over to Hong Kong to buy a handset and spend days going around trying it out. The handsets were big clunky things by comparison with what's out now. I didn't go because Korea was coming on line and things seemed to be going okay for a first effort. Yes, there are very specific reasons why CDMA won't flop in Shanghai. Look at the cdmaOne networks in Japan, the USA and Brazil for an inkling of why CDMA in Shanghai will succeed. Read this and check out the nice photos of handsets.ido.co.jp Japan seems to have pulled off the usual - keeping business in-house by making the network design require the dinky little cdmaOne handset with, presumably, lower power output. Nobody outside Japan produces those little handsets for the specific Japanese network design [my guess as to what's going on]. The Thinphone looks elephantine by comparison. Telecom New Zealand won't be able to goof around until 2001 getting their cdmaOne operating. Vodafone is getting the bulk of new business. Telecom has tried price cuts etc but people don't want to know - they get text messaging, lonnggggggg battery life, all the rest, from GSM. Minor price cuts don't make a difference. Remember I was never one that said battery life didn't matter though many did. It's always been vital to me and when GSM went out to weeks of standby, I did get nervous about CDMA. But with the MSM3000 and better to come, that superiority of GSM seems to have become minor. With new battery technologies and ASICs, the advantage will go to CDMA. Functionality with voice control, voice email amidst cdma2000 and WWeb will be the name of the game [at a cheap price]. Maurice