To: John F. Dowd who wrote (86625 ) 8/5/1999 11:53:00 AM From: Robert Douglas Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
John, The real vision is how to cope with our super efficiency and not with yesterday's concerns over wage/cost push inflation of yesteryear. You are making a grave error if you dismiss the role of wages in determining inflation. Wages are by far the largest and most important input. The things you mentioned, food and steel, are small by comparison. Any future inflation, if it should occur, will probably begin in wages from the service economy. This area isn't as disciplined by foreign competition as manufacturing. It is also not experiencing the productivity gains that manufacturing is. By some estimates manufacturing makes up only 20% of the U.S. economy. By the way did you see the following from Reuters this morning?Productivity Slows As Labor Costs Spike WASHINGTON (Aug. 5) - U.S. workers' pay rises far outstripped productivity gains during the second quarter of the year, the government said Thursday, raising fears that inflation pressures may be building. The Labor Department said productivity growth, a measure of the work force's efficiency, slowed in the second quarter to a rise of 1.3 percent compared to a revised gain of 3.6 percent in the first quarter. The first quarter rise was initially reported as a 3.5 percent gain. The sharp slowdown in productivity came as unit labor costs, a key gauge of wage inflation which partly reflects prevailing pay rates, rose substantially. Unit labor costs rose 3.8 percent in the second quarter compared to a revised rise of 0.8 percent in the first quarter. First quarter unit labor costs were initially reported as an 0.7 percent rise. The productivity gains were the smallest since last year's second quarter when productivity rose 0.4 percent while the unit labor cost gains were the biggest since the fourth quarter of 1997 which showed a 4.1 percent rise. The productivity gains fell well short of the 1.8 percent gain forecast by Wall Street economists while the unit labor costs rose more than forecasts of a 2.2 percent rise. Productivity growth is vital to healthy, low-inflationary growth. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has said that if the rate of growth of productivity gains began to flatten it could result in inflationary pressures in the economy. Productivity in the second quarter of the year compared to the second quarter of last year -- a measure of longer-term trends -- rose at 2.9 percent. In the first quarter productivity rose 2.7 percent compared to the year-ago quarter.