To: still learning who wrote (3321 ) 8/5/1999 6:41:00 PM From: michael r potter Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Fundamental and technical update on SFE. Keeping track of SFEs NAV becomes much more useful once again as ICGE is now a part of it. My very unofficial est. of NAV [including the soon to be USIT] is around $40 to $41. To my knowledge, there are no upcoming offerings that will have the dramatic input to SFEs NAV like ICGE did today. So, the market is currently paying around $14 over NAV for SFEs future interest in private companies. That still seems on the high side, but it will take some time and testing to see what the market feels is the "correct range". The silver lining IMO is that ICGE still has a good shot and trading in the range of my Mon. night guestimate of where it will spend a "fair amount of time", that being $30 to $40. An encouraging sign is its performance today in a dismal IPO market, and the performance of #1 holding Vertical Net. The low on VERT today was app. $65. Most internet stocks showed the first sign of real capitulation earlier today, and registered new multi-month lows. VERT diverged positively from that pattern. Its mid June sell-off low was around $55. A $10 higher low today with the internet world crashing around it. Not bad. The stochastic looks to be giving a very preliminary buy on VERT, so if there is some stability in the internet market, I would expect VERT to do well, which bodes well for parent BtoB ICGE. In conclusion, if there is just stabilization in the internet group, I would expect that SFEs NAV could move up to the mid-high $40s which would mitigate some concern I have with SFEs valuation, and make further dips close to $50 appear to be a decent fundamental buying opportunity. Technical considerations: SFE blew below its 200 day m/a and is now trading there for the first time since early Jan. Still under last stochastic sell from $70, but getting very oversold. Will take a a few days at best [a guess] for a potential crossover buy signal. Needs to stabilize first. This is a slower moving signal, intended to catch significant moves without so many false signal-whipsaws. The trade-off is that it will come after and above the absolute lows. Todays capitulation selling and reversal in the internets was significant and may represent lows that could last for a while. It is especially important that they hold through the upcoming economic numbers to be released. PS. hope some of you got ICGE on the cheap today. By the time I got a real time quote it was already $20, put in a market order, but it got kicked out. Didn't have time to call and wait, and it probably wouldn't have done any good as it was moving very fast. Hope some of you had better luck. Mike
