To: Mark Peterson CPA who wrote (12388 ) 8/5/1999 1:23:00 PM From: Jenne Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19700
Bounce From Lows Brings Cheer, Along With Skepticism By Justin Lahart Senior Writer 8/5/99 1:14 PM ET You can't say that it wasn't dramatic the way stocks turned this morning, the way the heavy early selling found investors willing to buy. And you can't say that it isn't cheering to see it, after days and days where any hint of strength was met by selling. It's comforting to see the trading screens finally flash green. Major Indices INDEX CHANGE % VALUE Dow 29.77 +0.3% 10,704.54 S&P 500 0.23 -0.02% 1305.10 Nasdaq 6.06 -0.2% 2533.94 Russell 2000 3.59 -0.8% 426.11 TSC Internet 2.70 +0.6% 492.61 BOND CHANGE PRICE YIELD 30-Year Treasury 18/32 88 30/32 6.059% But skepticism is reigning on Wall Street, where the move is seen as little more than a head fake, a momentary respite on the way to declines that will end with a much more capitulative downturn than what we saw this morning. Both fundamentally and technically, said Peter Canelo, U.S. strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, the market is on shaky footing. Fundamentally, the concern is interest rates, and a growing concern that the Fed will raise rates not just at its meeting Aug. 24, but also at its Oct. 4 get-together. "What's happening is, we had this crisis, it brought inflation down a little bit too much and it brought interest rates down a little too much," said Canelo. "So rates are going back where they were." This is really not too much of a problem -- the market was doing fine when rates were higher, after all -- but Canelo thinks it will be enough to weigh down the market through to the end of the quarter. Technically, Canelo is worried about what effect the Internets will have on the market. "We have seen a massive head-and-shoulders top on TheStreet.com Internet Sector index," he said. In that context, today's turn in the dot-coms is not very comforting, representing the usual fake-out rally after a head-and-shoulders gets completed. Among the technically minded, it's considered the classic shorting opportunity. The DOT lately was up 3 to 493, having traded as low as 452.90. "In my opinion, we're going to 300" on the DOT, said Canelo. That, he thinks, will bring margin calls which will prompt selling in other issues. "That could take the S&P 500 below 1280, and then you go back to your February and March lows." Around 1220. The corollary level on the Dow Jones Industrial Average to 1280 is 10,500, according to Greg Nie, chief technical analyst at Everen Securities in Chicago. "I think the market, in terms of the Dow, has a fighting chance to stay in the trading range it's been in since April, 10,500 is shaping up to be the pivotal point -- we are probably in danger of brushing it and playing with fire." If the Dow breaks that level on heavy volume, Nie worries that his indicators will point bearish for the first time in a long while. The Dow was lately up 30 to 10,704 while the S&P 500 was down a fraction to 1305. The Nasdaq Composite Index was off 6 to 2534. It had been as low as 2474.41. The Russell 2000 was off 4 to 426. Canelo doubts that Dow will get too heavily hit, though, protected by its weighting in cyclicals. The S&P, loaded with tech and financials, is another story. "I think you need anywhere from four to six weeks just to grind out the weak hands, losing positions, margin calls and that sort of thing," he said. Once the selling is over, though, "I think we're going to see a tremendous rally in the market in the fourth quarter."