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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Vayda who wrote (6566)	8/5/1999 4:10:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10852

Has anyone else established a firm set of requirements? Maybe, on some of these laggards, it is valid to take the Warren Buffet approach, just make sure they are adding value in what they are doing, and trust that eventually the market will recognize it. Seems to me that LOR and G* are doing what they promised, moving ahead very much according to schedule. And at the proper time they'll start making bundles of money, or the market will recognize more permanently that they're going to make bundles of money, and the current holders will make bundles of money. :o) That is the approach I took with QCOM, which eventually bore fruit--although it took years of dead money to reach that point. :o( Two alternatives are: (1) Leave LOR for other alternatives, and jump in on the momentum at the proper time (and if you can differentiate a move with a fake-out), if it occurs and giving up the first part of the move, or (2) recognize that LOR may not be a winner (is this possible?!), and move on to other pastures. This latter alternative would have served me well with Pairgain (PAIR)--which has terrific technology, but got hit by a price war and now is being outflanked by later arrivals. I should have gotten out (I should get out!), but their technology is still terrific, etc. I believe that LOR and G* have successfully gotten through the tough parts. I don't see them getting hit by direct competition and price wars. They're not getting "outflanked". They really seem to have it together as companies; management seems to be very good (despite many's concern over their marketing expertise, in which I concur). Theirs is a potentially explosive market. I'm staying. As you say, "just throwing ideas around". fwiw. Now, if G* can just . . . Best, JS

To: Jeff Vayda who wrote (6566)	8/5/1999 6:45:00 PM
From: Timothy R. Tierney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10852

Jeff; My reasoning is not very sophisticated and I don't consider myself an expert by any means....but my theory is that Loral insists 32 sats is enough to rollout a regional system....The last launch was about a week ago or so...give four weeks to get the sats now up into proper orbit and test them all...that gets us to around Aug 20th....another two to three weeks to rollout some of the system....that's about sept 15th...should be getting activity by then .....by end of October there should be enough activity to extrapolate that there are or are not any customers....I figure the street expects little demand based on Iridium's lack of customers...so if the street expects a fizzle and there is some good activity that will be enough for the financial market to take notice....add telstar 7 to the mix by then..a proven mkt for loral...add more sats joining the constellation....Voila You have a rocket as Loral moves up substantially as does G*....If on the other hand the MKT doesn't see any customer/revenue activity and /or Telstar doesn't make an appearance etc, etc...then say hello to another dud!!!!