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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2015)	8/5/1999 2:39:00 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

I haven't seen the article which this headline belongs to: "U.S. Should Raise Interest Rates Unless Demand Growth Slows-most Imf Directors"; however, I think that this received wisdom will be equivalent to raising tariffs in the 1930s. A Giant Mistake. What exactly do these people think will happen to the economies of much of the rest of the world if demand in the US falls, especially if it falls sharply? They will be in far worse shape than they are today.

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2015)	8/5/1999 4:29:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Hi Henry, do you have any interesting cross-rate plays currently?? I wrote the USD thoughts below, to Defrocked yesterday afternoon, and I wanted to bounce it off of you as well. Thanks, John the dollar looks to me like we are approaching an end to it's decline very soon,possibly today but within the next 36-72 hours. we have been down to 99.00 on th dxu9 and it looks like we have just about finished this 5 waves down from the July 12th high at 104.24. If we get a panic low in the buck we might fall to 88.10-20 , I think that would occur Sunday night in asia at the latest. this should be the low for the next several weeks or months. and we will get a meaningful rally back to the 102.5 area. we have broken below the 40 wk ma on the continuation chart but may not stay beneath it long enough for it to be a problem or meaningful. big parallel trendline we are approaching. decisionpoint.com

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2015)	8/6/1999 1:02:00 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

From Fleckenstein's Thursday Rap: From the 'left field' department... There continue to be concerns about a yuan devaluation, and I thought I would share with you some musings from Colin Negrych about what that might mean. If the yuan devaluation fears reach fever pitch, and result in an appreciable weakening of the yen, the U.S. bond market will become e-x-t-r-e-m-e-l-y well bid... to some extent from expectations of a significant strengthening of the dollar but moreover, from a significant increase in "safe haven" buying in an environment already rife with uncertainty. If bids appear, however, they will likely be filled in like pop tarts by Asian central banks and private investors, all of whom recognized a devaluation as occasion for a dollar "exit strategy" trade, and not the beginning of a rehabilitation of the dollar and U.S. asset markets. Some folks will undoubtedly assume the Fed will respond to yuan devaluation-related instability by n-o-t raising rates. These big brains are already bidding up the S&P."