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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (55120)	8/5/1999 5:31:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 86076

Michelle, it's entirely possible that we see a one- two week rally here, in fact that would be consistent with what usually happens following the jobs data - regardless of their implications. the dollar is overdue for a bounce and that's likely to support the market. in addition, put/call ratios have been very high for almost two weeks now and bullish sentiment has declined markedly. usually that is enough to put in a short term bottom. it may well be a tradable rally that has started today. however, should the market tank tomorrow on the jobs data, we will know for sure that the character of the market has changed and even more near term downside can be expected. there was a lot of short covering today, the BTD crowd predictably joined in, and market internals were remarkably crappy for such a strong day, so the possibility of today having been yet another head fake can not yet be dismissed imo. in any case, even if the market continues to rally from here, i do not expect the rally to have much legs - it will likely retrace some of the losses, get everybody euphoric again, and then we will REALLY tank. i covered two profitable shorts this morning but added new ones on the rebound. i'm prepared to let the market run against me for a little while, meaning i am more concerned about missing out on downside potential right now then upside potential. if anything should occur to change my view i'll let you know. take a look at the p/c ratio update on the sentiment page at homestead.com where i outlined my expectations in more detail. regards, hb