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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (1815)	8/5/1999 6:34:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 3543

Jorj, obviously i agree on the rotation out of the semis...they have had their average cyclical low-to-high run of +194% and are now overowned and due for the beginning of their next down-cycle. the bounce in the nutz today had all the hallmarks of a bear market rally, including the bubble TV talk of 'capitulation' and a bottom having been found. wave count-wise they have now started 4 of 3, a corrective wave, and per definition we will have the 5 of 3 downwave thereafter, which WILL be marked by some degree of capitulation at it's end. this will be followed by a larger degree corrective wave 4, which i expect to be more complex, a.k.a. "aimlessly bouncing around" before the larger degree wave 5 down begins, which will end with UTTER capitulation and possibly a credible bottom put in, with EBAY at say, 5 or 10 bucks, YHOO at 20, AMZN at 15, AOL at 15-20 and CMGI at 15 (rough estimates only of course). i wouldn't be surprised if the jobs data goosed the market some more tomorrow, but if they don't, the rot is even worse than i currently think. just look at how lame the financials acted today, in spite of the bond rally. if i were a bull, i would be heartened by the fact that the Dow held important support, but would be worried to no end by a) the turnaround happening so fast and b)the absolutely miserable internals. it's actually incredible, we have one up-day like that and everybody wants to play the long side; shows you how deep-seated the complacency in this market still is. hb