Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : FGCI --- Family Golf, Tiger Woods, Etc. --- For Long Only -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Marty Rubin who wrote (93)	8/7/1999 7:40:00 AM
From: Timothy R. West	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 101

I am in. I was away from the markets since July 30, so I missed the chance to do any buying under the 5 level. I bought my first stock at 7.18 towards the end of June and had a 1 pt profit for a couple of weeks, but as is my pattern, I tend to get in early and suffer some heat for the first 3-6 months, especially on a longer term value play. The break below the $6 level on a pickup in volume shows that someone is selling and we don't know why. If FGCI can crawl back above the 6 level, then get above the 7 level, then it is healthier than if it is down here at 5.59 (8/6/99 close). I think the 10% drop in the market has hurt and margin players are blowing out of all their positions and the typical low-volume of August with many players on vacation (hitting balls at FGCI) should make the market vulnerable to another 100 pt slide to the 1200 level or lower on the S&P500 (1300 last, 8/6/99). One observation by a putt-putt owner in Florida: FGCI is not well run and you can't measure the value added by the previous owner when you are buying a business. The typical owner (before they sell to FGCI) works 80 hours a week at low or no pay, but after they sell to FGCI, they work at time and a half for 40 hours and at full pay for 40 hours. Then if you have to hire out the work (maintenance, landscaping, plumbing, etc) then you are deeper in the hole. There are significant maintenance expenses, especially in carpeting the putt-putts, painting and landscaping. Most owners have sunk 1 - 1.5 million into a nice course (at a fancy course with 36 holes and lots of water features and landscaping), so one would assume that you could net 100k after all expenses. 300 rounds per day X 200 days per year (if in the North, April-Oct) X 90% (assume 10% rain days) X $4/rd = only $210,000 gross sales. I don't know how to make the numbers work. If you throw on leverage, it lowers your return because of interest payments, but it increases your ROE because you have less invested in each unit. Hmmm. I suppose there is a fair price for FGCI and I may buy more ahead of the earnings report and sell the day after for a trade. I will then analyze the numbers and decide whether to add or sell my initial position. Regards, Tim