To: Sonny McWilliams who wrote (28636 ) 8/5/1999 9:12:00 PM From: tang Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41369
Sonny, thanks for the highlight of the Pitman interview. We have experienced an extradinary day because 1 article stated that MSFT PLAN to either offer discount rate or free internet access, what surprises me are many facts have been neglected before selling into AOL: (1) DOJ is after MSFT due to its unfair competition using WINDOW OS, there are over 5000 ISPs in USA alone, 99% are dial-up ISP, if MSFT goes for free, only few will survive, I don't think MSFT and DOJ will ignore that fact. (2) Assuming MSFT goes to extreme, ATT is also under presure because for a phone co. to give away its access charge is like giving away its vital line and if they give them for free how can they 'rent' the phone access to local ISP? This MSFT's latest move may bring ATT and AOL more closer than ever. (3) The best MSFT can do is lower their fee to $9.95/month. If that is the fact, AOL has been prepared for this day for quite sometimes. Coming soon, Euro-AOL is going to provide free ISP using Netscape as the log-in portal to attract street-wise customers but AOL is still providing $14.95/month for 'regular' customer, this is like the Macy's or Bloomingdale's discount center, you may get one or 2 of the brand name's items but the real good items are displayed inside the actual stores. This Euro-AOL model is a perfect weapon to fend off MSFT's attact. I now understand why AOL acquired Compuserve and Netscape because AOL 'sees' the market trend and they need different brand to to the defensive work but leave the flagship AOL intact, adding more and more contents into AOL to hold their members because these contents are not in Netscape nor Compuserve. (4) MSFT must surrender $600 millions of revenue per year for free access received from the current MSN subscribers, 1 billion for 4 million subscriber per year assuming they gain 2 million subscribers in 1 year, that is bleeding, MSN has bad customer service already can they cope with larger customer base? (5) AOL competes with other ISPs by ways of attracting customers MSFT competes with anyone by killing competitors and rub their customers, this is exactly what MSFT tries to do with AOL's AIM and ICQ customer base. (6) AOL offers $400 rebate for a PC is a smart move to counter another trend, there will be more trends coming AOL's way, MSFT latest move is just one of them. (7) AOL has been weathering many tough situations, I have strong confidence that AOL management will deal with MSFT properly. (8) In stead of sitting there whining, I must admit that I took the advantage of today's situation and net 150 more shares of AOL at the day end comparing with yesterday's total and not feeling guilty about it. As long as Internet is here to stay and to prosper, AOL has my vote of confidence.