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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (7971)	8/6/1999 1:11:00 AM
From: Stewart Whitman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78830

Armin, I looked at ITG, but didn't buy. It's certainly better value than other "trading-system" stocks, but I looked at the year-to-year % change in NYSE volume for the past 100+ years to try and figure out what I would consider a reasonable long-term growth rate - figuring if it was below that it would be "good" value. From the data, I figured an average year-to-year % change in share volume of 13%. As a result, I would be interested in getting ITG at a discount to a 13 P/E. Keep in mind that analyst's "projections" for this stock are truly crystal ball guesswork. Give ITG a couple years in a row where share volumes decline 10% a couple years in a row and there won't be very much growth at all. There's not much ITG can do about that and that lack of visibility should hurt the P/E. Anyway, the data is below. It was taken from the NYSE daily data on the NYSE web site, and run thru a program to summarize it. It's very rough and was done quickly. It's pretty interesting to look at, even for those that aren't interested in ITG. Regards, Stew NYSE Volume by year: Year Shares Chg TD ----------------------------- 1888 62704 303 1889 61792 -.7% 301 1890 58068 -6.5% 303 1891 64275 +10.7% 303 1892 80267 +25.3% 302 1893 68058 -15.4% 303 1894 33251 -51.0% 303 1895 51669 +54.9% 304 1896 41287 -19.2% 301 1897 63484 +52.7% 303 1898 85751 +37.8% 297 1899 120599 +41.1% 296 1900 102048 -16.7% 301 1901 221662 +123.1% 293 1902 162774 -27.7% 298 1903 137575 -15.4% 298 1904 157426 +13.7% 300 1905 210355 +33.6% 300 1906 221584 +4.0% 304 1907 156722 -28.5% 301 1908 165071 +5.3% 301 1909 197680 +21.8% 296 1910 160948 -18.8% 297 1911 125210 -22.4% 298 1912 132542 +4.5% 302 1913 82799 -36.6% 298 1914 47322 -10.7% 191 1915 172341 +130.3% 302 1916 232490 +35.3% 301 1917 184628 -19.7% 298 1918 142246 -22.6% 297 1919 315042 +124.5% 293 1920 227900 -29.0% 299 1921 172782 -23.8% 298 1922 260132 +49.6% 300 1923 236000 -9.2% 300 1924 283456 +19.3% 302 1925 483788 +71.2% 301 1926 452409 -5.8% 299 1927 580701 +27.5% 301 1928 958704 +65.6% 300 1929 1124659 +20.9% 291 1930 810681 -29.5% 298 1931 576633 -29.2% 300 1932 425086 -26.7% 302 1933 654672 +63.2% 285 1934 323701 -53.1% 301 1935 381489 +17.9% 301 1936 494498 +29.6% 301 1937 406634 -17.1% 299 1938 297286 -27.3% 301 1939 261875 -11.5% 300 1940 208455 -20.8% 302 1941 170439 -17.9% 301 1942 125532 -26.2% 301 1943 278303 +122.4% 300 1944 263221 -5.0% 299 1945 399134 +47.7% 307 1946 373074 +2.1% 281 1947 253487 -32.4% 283 1948 302085 +19.2% 283 1949 271741 -9.3% 281 1950 523961 +92.8% 281 1951 443355 -15.9% 283 1952 337747 -20.3% 271 1953 354733 +13.4% 251 1954 573256 +61.0% 252 1955 648429 +13.1% 252 1956 556142 -13.8% 251 1957 560133 +.3% 252 1958 746932 +33.3% 252 1959 858466 +14.5% 253 1960 765569 -10.4% 252 1961 1021136 +34.4% 250 1962 1090850 +6.4% 251 1963 1146183 +5.1% 251 1964 1236469 +7.0% 253 1965 1553142 +26.1% 252 1966 1899364 +22.3% 252 1967 2529832 +33.7% 251 1968 2931446 +28.7% 226 1969 2850662 -12.0% 250 1970 2937233 +1.4% 254 1971 3891188 +33.0% 253 1972 4118498 +7.1% 250 1973 4053078 -2.3% 252 1974 3516983 -13.5% 253 1975 4693121 +33.4% 253 1976 5359989 +14.2% 253 1977 5273644 -1.1% 252 1978 7204932 +36.6% 252 1979 8156053 +12.8% 253 1980 11352169 +39.2% 253 1981 11853891 +4.4% 253 1982 16457915 +38.8% 253 1983 21589520 +31.2% 253 1984 23011908 +6.6% 253 1985 27510583 +20.0% 252 1986 35679891 +29.2% 253 1987 47701144 +33.7% 253 1988 40849411 -14.3% 253 1989 41698410 +2.5% 252 1990 39664382 -5.2% 253 1991 45265917 +14.1% 253 1992 51375543 +13.1% 254 1993 67648547 +31.2% 255 1994 72694875 +9.6% 250 1995 87217347 +19.0% 252 1996 104636054 +19.0% 254 1997 133311989 +27.9% 253 1998 169744442 +27.8% 252 First 4 months: 1998 51899321 82 1999 67304980 +30% 82 Average Y/Y change: 1880's -.6% 1890's +13.0% 1900's +12.6% 1910's +17.6% 1920's +20.4% 1930's -6.2% 1940's +7.4% 1950's +18.6% 1960's +16.0% 1970's +13.8% 1980's +20.5% 1990's +19.7% All +12.5%