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To: Teresa Lo who wrote (22292)	8/6/1999 6:27:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

IS, >>>> One thing that bugged me about the whole bounce was how the media was so quick to label it capitulation - it seemed too easy and as I sit to write this reply, I look at the CBOE put call ratio and it's not exactly what I'd call washed out here. Seems like folks were buying equity calls hand over fist. VIX was not that high and internals, namely new highs and new lows still are not improving <<<< I agree with you totally. The one thing that bothers me the most is the NEW HIGHs/NEW LOWs. THE NEW LOWs got over 200, which is the highest level since last OCT. Granted that the market sold off in the morning so the NEW LOWs would be high, but now it must improve significantly over the next few days(back under 100) or this market will probably continue lower. You will also noticed that besides going above 200 for the NEW LOWs, we have had the most number of days where the NEW LOWs has been over 100 since last OCT. This is definitely not a good sign, unless it can improve immediately and significantly, and such supports my belief that this rally should be short and weak. seeya

To: Teresa Lo who wrote (22292)	8/6/1999 8:34:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

IS at least the IV starts to widen and it starts to be worthwile to sell option now. In the mean time the SPX reversed about 10 points to negative. Interesting times <GG> Haim

To: Teresa Lo who wrote (22292)	8/6/1999 8:39:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 99985

IS, I agree that we did not see enough capitulation. The Myers High-Low system , gave a sell signal today. The article describing the signal was in the January 1997 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities. It was entitled "A Daily A-D New High, New Low Market System. What it looks for generally, is new 52 week highs and relatively many 52 week lows. It then looks for a period when the Dow outperforms the daily advance-decline line. Bingo! Today was that day that fit the mathematical parameters given in the article. Since writing that article, the author, Dennis Myers, improved upon the system, but today's signal would have been given by either one, the old system or the new. Prior sell signals were given on March 11, 1994, September 14, 1994, June 7, 1996, March 17, 1997 and April 23, 1998. Those are some of the good ones. There were a few not so good signals such as October 9, 1996 and February 11, 1999. The last signal actually led to a quick 200 point Dow decline, (that's on February 11, 1999) but then a straight up move. In any event, a sell signal was given today, even as the Dow rose well over 100 points at the close. there is way to much illiquidity in the credit markets and credit spreads are higher than in 10 years. even the ceo of JPM was quoted on this issue in the WSJ, those who know about capital makets know that we will have trouble for the remainder of the year. This should translate into a lower stock market at the end of the year and we should have 1 or 2 panic phases in getting there. John