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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (7529)	8/6/1999 9:54:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 15132

Wally, I would never try to "shoot" you. ... the bond ghouls maybe, but never you. The street's reaction to great news absolutely confounds me. I'm still suffering from the apparent false impression that these people are intelligent, knowledgeable, and have the ability to see the "big picture". I guess I have to remind myself that economists can't tell us whether or not there's a recession until a quarter or two after the recovery from it is well underway. Expecting this group to see the big picture with current data is just not realistic. FWIW, Ian.

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (7529)	8/6/1999 10:02:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Wally: Re: "You of course know that I put "worse" in quotes intentionally - to represent consensus expectations." Well, you are correct, Wally, but the market does not care because it has been discounted already. Yesterday, we got the productivity number which sucked and the market did not care. This was a big clue as to market events forthcoming. Over the past few days I have posted the probability data for a Fed. rate hike and we saw that the futures had discounted a 100% chance of a .25 point. Now that discounting has been matched by stability in the stock market. Thank you for being a great messenger <g>!!