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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: flatsville who wrote (42716)	8/6/1999 10:01:00 AM
From: big guy	Respond to of 94695

amgdata.com

To: flatsville who wrote (42716)	8/6/1999 3:32:00 PM
From: flatsville	Respond to of 94695

Pre-2000 funding crush fueling swap spread blowout 10:12 a.m. Aug 06, 1999 Eastern By Christina Fincher LONDON, Aug 6 (Reuters) - An expected rush by Eurobond borrowers to raise funds ahead of an expected Y2K-related year-end market shutdown is fuelling the sharp spike in swap spreads seen this week, bond analysts said on Friday. Early year-end book-closing is likely to result in a condensed second half trading period, sending borrowers scrambling to satisfy funding needs in a two- rather than four-month trading period, they said. Swap spreads, which reflect the interest rate premium a double-A rated borrower has to pay over government bonds, are a key barometer of credit risk in the financial markets. ''We are still expecting a significant new issues pipeline in September/October time,'' said one bond originator. ''Y2K issues mean many investors will be closing their books early and borrowers needing to raise funds will have little option but to join the funding crush.'' Heavy expected corporate bond supply going foward is adding to pressure on swap spreads, which have spiralled higher recently as fears of higher interest rates in the United States have ignited liquidity concerns. Benchmark 10-year dollar swap spreads soared to 114 basis points this week, their widest levels in a decade while other major currency swaps hit levels not seen since Russia's debt crisis last September. But analysts note important differences between the credit crunch of last autumn and the latest bout of swap spread widening. ''Last year, two major credit events -- the near-collapse of Long Term Capital Management and Russia's debt crisis -- blew spreads wider,'' said Edward Marrinan, head of European credit research at J.P. Morgan. ''To date, there have been no credit concerns on this magnitude and swap spreads are drifting wider largely on liquidity rather than credit concerns.'' Last Autumn, panic-stricken investors dumped corporate bonds for the safety of government bonds, but flight-to-quality flows so far have been relatively low. Instead of grinding to a halt, the Eurobond market has seen a host of corporate borrowers raising funds in recent days. On Thursday, as U.S. swap spreads hit decade-highs, retail giant Wal-Mart priced a $5.75 billion bond -- the fourth largest bond in U.S. corporate history -- to finance its acquisition of British supermarket chain Asda. Even sub investment-grade borrowers such as the Republic Turkey and Hillsdown unit Premier International Foods have been able to access the market in recent days. But fears of even wider swap spreads and higher borrowing costs going forward may be one reason to explain the recent issuance rush, analysts said. J.P. Morgan analysts predict that a combination of higher interest rates and flatter yield curves will lead to swap infoseek.go.com

To: flatsville who wrote (42716)	8/6/1999 4:22:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Respond to of 94695

Flatsville, Big guy gave you the link I use: amgdata.com Just watch the ticker at the bottom of your screen. Bill

To: flatsville who wrote (42716)	8/6/1999 5:15:00 PM
From: C.K. Houston	Respond to of 94695

More on Tiger Hedge Fund rumors ... ... We have just received word from a reliable source that the renowned hedge fund, Tiger, is in deep, deep trouble and in even worse shape that we have been reporting to you. The latest news is they are about to be hit with a $6 billion dollar redemption. At best, that will mean their capital base will have dropped from $22 billion to $6 billion - and perhaps it could be lower. In addition we have been told that 50% the staff has left. If true, and our source is impeccable, it can explain why the swamp spreads are at such high levels - which indicates that there is tremendous stress in the credit system. It explains why there is do much talk ( even in the Wall Street Journal ) about Goldman Sachs, Chase and other banks having some big problems. Today, the bank index is tanking and is down 2% at the moment. The index broke 800 and is down 16 points on the day. It explains why financial stocks are reeling ... exchange2000.com Remember last year, during that LTCM fiasco? ... NEW YORK (CNNfn) October 12, 1998 - Five days after suffering his largest one-day loss ever, Tiger hedge fund manager Julian Robertson Jr. on Monday applauded the U.S. Federal Reserve for acting swiftly to rescue a troubled rival and predicted a bright future for hedge funds once the current tempest subsides ... cnnfn.com LONDON (CNNfn) - November 2, 1998 - Tiger Management lost $5.5 billion in September and October, sending the hedge fund managed by Julian Robertson Jr. spinning into the red for the year ... cnnfn.com If true, what's FED gonna do this time? Lower interest rates again like they did last fall? What other tricks can they pull out of the hat this time? What's left? House of cards ... Shoot. Should have shorted those banks stocks last week when I was thinking about it. Cheryl