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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wowzer who wrote (48959)	8/6/1999 4:14:00 PM
From: dfloydr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Roy: One has to wonder what information hole those NE sellers are hiding in. Blocks that size should be better informed than to bail out at these levels. Maybe that Merrill Lynch fund manager who unloaded all those oil stocks in February still had something left to throw out ;-)

To: Wowzer who wrote (48959)	8/6/1999 4:35:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Reality Check.... Celebration is justified - in that we're moving - Brent high etc.. These Big Blocks are lifting the sector - some of these big blocks had to get executed as much as $1 over the prior trades... But, what happens when the Fundies get their fill here ? The celebration should be when we sell into this type of strength, or when we buy the laggards - like so many have pointed out here... I'd hate to be chasing NE SDC NBR & UTI etc. here... EOG & KMG getting real good institutional support here...but, what we are seeing is a limited amount of funds buying individual stocks - disproportionately driving them... today APA, APC down slightly... what we need is a 3 - day accross the board buying binge; with everything up 6-8-10% total over the 3 days... then - this is for real... I am not so sure that this recent spate of upgrades was not to give the ''Big Boys'' an exit - trimming opportunity... Yes; Oil & Gas prices are superb - fundamentals are strong; but - the Cap Ex game has changed ! Look at OEI, XTO - the majors... many companies here are deleveraging, the majors have slim refining margins - tremendous pressure to keep a tight reign on spending. While many have pointed out the difference in the stock prices here today vs. last year - when we now have $20+ crude oil - vs. $10-12; the real story is last year we had 822 Rigs drilling and this year we only have 602. The fundamentals were much better last year - in that the drillers & service stocks actually had more rigs drilling, at higher dayrates and the service/mfg co's had more orders & higher backlogs... the price of Oil has done very little here... Company CEO after Company CEO has said - recovery still is 2 quarters away... I am not so sure that the Street will take us substantially higher without the actual bottom line results being seen by these companies. I do NOT think the price of Oil alone here can move us much more than this potential headfake rally ...?? Once again; the E&P's are the only subsector actually benefiting by higher commodity prices and their valuations in many cases are better when compared to last year that the driller/service stocks ! OEI looks cheap and poised for the 2nd tier entry by the Institutions shortly; BELW CRK RRC EPEX XTO all are substantially - 30-50% off of 52 weeks highs & have actual better fundamentals than they did last year at those higher prices... this is direct opposite of price vs. fundamentals of the driller/service stocks - that's why I am still 100% in E&P's. Untill I see 135+ GOM rigs working & strongly trending toward Carl Palmers magic 150 # - that is needed for rising dayrates & when US storage falls under 320 M Boe - as that I believe is many Oil Majors #, that they view as where current prices are sustainable - on a supply - demand basis; vs. the speculative trading catalyst that has led Crude to where it is today... Anyone buying today ? I bought more RRC, a nice chunk of OEI and some more MEXP fwiw.