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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (67839)	8/6/1999 2:02:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1574250

A few minutes back the Squawk Box guy (Mark Hanes?) was talking about having something about AMD on for Monday morning. This may be the sign of the beginning of the momentum plays.

To: Charles R who wrote (67839)	8/7/1999 1:33:00 AM
From: grok	Respond to of 1574250

RE: <What do you think the value of RMBS should be if it achieves x% market share (pick your own x) by the end of 2001 and then grows with the memory market at, say, 30% a year after that? i.e. (year 2001 EPS* PE of 30) discounted to 1999?> Well, first of all Rambus has developed the drdram technology and transplanted it to nearly the entire dram industry while never spending more than $9M in a quarter. They have no debt and $83M in cash and $30M in long term deferred revenues and have had 11 straight profitable quarters. All this and the royalty revenue stream from drdram does not even begin until next quarter. As drdram usage ramps up Rambus will bring in revenues of somewhere between 1% and 2% of the sales of the drdrams with a one quarter delay. At this point they could, if they wanted to, fire their engineering staff and retain a few accountants and clerks to receive the royalty checks which will amount to many $millions per month under even the most pessimistic scenario. They also receive even higher royalty percentages on the logic chips which drive the drdram channels. But I digress, I would expect that during 2001 Rambus will achieve somewhere between 1/3 and 2/3 of the dram market which I would expect will be about $40B by then. By the way, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter has a strong buy and a 12 month target of $150 for rmbs along with an EPS estimate of $6-8 in 2002/2003. See postings by unclewest on the Rambus thread on Rambus future financials in which he analzyes the numbers carefully.