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Biotech / Medical : CTEC: Cholestech any other investors? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan C. Zezula who wrote (672)	8/9/1999 12:16:00 AM
From: Duane L. Olson	Respond to of 710

Hi, Al... First let me post some conference call highlights...with a tip of the hat to Funincolo from the Yahoo board...: Conference call highlights by: Funincolo 1487 of 1499 Conference call highlights: 1. Cassettes sales up 29% from prior yr 2. Over 300 LDX units placed 3. Positive cash flow from operations 4. 6 weeks inventory on hand 5. Inventory down 1.3 million from last yr 6. R&D down 15% from last yr 7. We will see some options exercised over next month which are expiring 8. Liver panel submitted to FDA - if approval will be marketed to POL before yr end 9. BUN test on hold-will update next conference call 10. Beginning program on data management for interface to LDX for patient info 11. Competition: Lifestream- CLIA waived - Total cholesterol only Actimed (SP?) FDA approved for total cholesterol only 12. Company looking for 30% growth rate yr over yr 13. Company looking for 15-20% net income as a % of Sales 14. Sales programs will focus on Consumer based/awareness 15. Bonuses paid in 1999 were accrued in 1998. No bonuses for yr 1999 Always nice to get some real info. tso

To: Alan C. Zezula who wrote (672)	8/9/1999 12:34:00 AM
From: Duane L. Olson	Respond to of 710

Al, Technically there would be good reason to expect CTEC to cover that gap between 2 7/8 and 3 1/8, so we shouldn't be surprised if we get at least an intra-day drop to 2 7/8 --- sad to say. beta.iqc.com Seems to me we have to factors to contend with which are the significant reasons behind such a dismal performance by CTEC right here. First, CTEC has disappointed so many times, that a large number of shareholders have been looking for any excuse to bail out. The fact that CTEC did not soar past 5 when the company reported earnings of 5 cents (versus 2 cents predicted), and then followed up with the excellent news of an agreement with WLA's Parke-Davis unit for a pharmacy program -- well, the "many-times-disappointed" may just have taken that as a sign of more of the same, and jumped ship. Second, we are in an overall miserable market. The folks who would have used their Internet IPO profits to speculate in small caps with good stories are now looking at negative IPO "profits"....so they sure aren't going to pick up a few thou shares of CTEC. Let's face it Al, this is going to be a long grind back up, while the company works it's butt off to regain some modicum of credibility. I don't like it, and personally I thought we could get an initial kick back above 5 -- maybe 6 -- on a good earnings number. But I understand why it may take another quarter or two to get a decent move. Too many folks have been kicked in the teeth here... Al, chart-wise, I would hazard a guess that the low end of that gap-- 2 7/8--- would be the lowest reasonable point to pick up more stock in the near term. I'm going to hold off any more purchases until we get a bit closer to earnings season again, however. There is a LOT of CTEC in my knapsack already -- but at a nice average price, to be sure. Finally --- read that conference call report. a 30% growth rate here is somewhat below those REALLY optimistic numbers Yahoo research was reporting, but a 30% growth rate for a while would give us a chance for a PE above 40 when the numbers start clicking in, say, 18 months. Looking for earnings at a rate of, oh -- $.60/share annualized at that time.....and optimistically pushing that 40 PE, and we have a 24-dollar stock.....Halfway to my target <G>... Cheers, Al. tso