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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Strauss who wrote (22360)	8/6/1999 3:49:00 PM
From: James Strauss	Respond to of 99985

Moving Averages... The 5 day MA on the Dow is still below the 13 day MA... timely.com But, the 5 day MA seems to be moving latterly... It might be hinting that people are accumulating the dips in these Blue Chip companies... A crossing of the 13 day MA could signal the turnaround... The caveat is the continuing deterioration of Market Breadth... quote.yahoo.com New Lows are over 200 today while Decliners are clobbering Advancers... Last fall we had the final capitulation after several days of New Lows above the 900 area... We may have to see the same thing this time... Jim

To: James Strauss who wrote (22360)	8/6/1999 4:37:00 PM
From: Timothy Liu	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

A typical person on the market is not the average blue collar worker. It is a person like us on SI (collective), with easy access to information (sometimes manipulative info), opinions from all sides. He get tips from media, friends, online discussion and invest base on a little research, hoping for a quick return. Frequently in the margin and have wide fluctuation in assets, therefore susceptible to greed and fear more often than not. To say a person on the market is ignorant (like the name 'J6P' implies) is hardly true. My guess is currently an average person in the market had a good run in the early half of the year and depends on his exposure in the internet stock is mildly up to severely down for the year. I also think the people with the most assets are doing better because they are unlikely to have large exposure to internet (put all eggs in one basket). These people also have raised cash and waiting for the bottom. Based on the believe that there are still considerable cash on the sideline (and increasing every day) make me believe there won't be a 'crash'. Perhapes a channel with downward bias to draw in the cash. (Sorry all these are more gut feel than TA) Tim JMHO