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To: E. Davies who wrote (13679)	8/6/1999 5:56:00 PM
From: gpowell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

From ATHMS 10Q: As of March 31, 1999, approximately 15.0 million of the homes served by these cable partners were passed by upgraded two-way HFC cable... ATHM has ~700,000 subs, so that's at best a 4.67% sign on ratio. The number of homes passed has had 4 months to grow so in fact the sub/ratio may be getting smaller.

To: E. Davies who wrote (13679)	8/6/1999 9:55:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 29970

It is delta(subs)/dt - delta(passed)/dt which has gone negative, but it is true that we don't have enough evolution of the market to say this will persist. Certainly lowering the price will reverse it.

To: E. Davies who wrote (13679)	8/6/1999 11:02:00 PM
From: Jing Qian	Respond to of 29970

Eric, I don't have official data to back up my claim of a stagnating growth in Fremont. I also don't know if Fremont can represent the whole country. But I did an informal survey among people I know. A lot of them are only using Internet at home occasionally and check email only. They all like the @home speed. But they are not eager to call up TCI for immediate subscription. Only one of my 10 friends did actually sign up @Home after my recommendation. I ask them if they would sign up if the price be dropped to $22(same as AOL) tomorrow. They all said they will immediately. That's why I believe ATHM must overcome the psychology of these people in order to achieve phenominal growth similar to that of AOL's. I would say safely these people represent 80% of the Fremont population.