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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (42751)	8/6/1999 6:11:00 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

hehehehehe..... Okay, I'll rethink my position.. well, I just rethunk it and the answer is still higher on Monday.....<g> GZ

To: William H Huebl who wrote (42751)	8/7/1999 8:56:00 AM
From: Kip518	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Timing the BK -- next week? From: urbansurvival.com With the upcoming solar eclipse on August 11, there has been more discussion, lately, regarding the correlation between solar eclipses and stock market crashes. A fascinating study was completed by Steven Puetz showing that 8 of the 12 greatest stock market crashes in history from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 to the Tokyo crash in 1990 fell within a time frame of six days before to three days after a full moon (usually also a lunar eclipse) that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse. The odds of this happening by chance are estimated to be less than one chance in 127,000 (special thanks to Peter Eliades, author of Stock Market Cycles, who summarized the work of Steven Puetz and brought it to my attention). In addition to the correlation between eclipses and crashes, it is now widely recognized by traders that there is often a 55 calendar day time period between all-time stock market highs and the subsequent stock market crash wave lows (1929 and 1987). If you put these two theories together, it indicates an all-time closing high on July 16 to be followed by a sell-off culminating in a crash 55 days later during the second week of September. However, knowing that the market seeks to frustrate the most participants, we have to be on guard for the unexpected. It is my growing feeling that too many people are now aware of the aforementioned cycles for them to play out as neatly as anticipated. Don't get me wrong; the evidence is too compelling to ignore and I have been hugely short this market since July 19, and will continue to do so until the market proves me wrong. But, what would frustrate the most market players, right now? Perhaps a crash occurring much earlier than anticipated which would not allow the masses time to get on board and profit from the obvious. This is where the 55 day crash cycle comes into play. It's been my observation over the last two years that the 55 days crash cycle has been replaced by the 82 day crash cycle. The number of calendar days between the all-time high on 8/6/97 and mini-crash on 10/27/97 was 82 days and the number of days between the all-time high on 7/19/98 and the intraday meltdown on 10/8/98 was 83 days. Perhaps the dynamics of the market have changed slightly and caused the 55 day crash cycle to be elongated to 82 days. This is not an arbitrary number; both the 55 day cycle and 82 day cycle correlate to the exact number of days it takes the moon to return to the space it occupied in the sky on the day of the prior all-time stock market high before the crash. 55 days is two revolutions around the zodiac and 82 days is merely an extended third revolution around the zodiac. We know from Puetz's eclipse research that it is probable that lunar movement, for whatever reason, can have a marked effect on investor psychology. If so, it would not be unreasonable to see an 82 day lunar-related crash cycle. If we take the new 82 day crash cycle into consideration, it alters the forecast for a September crash in two ways: the first possibility is that the crash is obviously delayed until October. A second, less obvious, possibility is that the crash comes much sooner than expected in the first week of August. I realize that I may be reaching a bit and massaging the data too aggressively to fit my own theories but indulge me for a moment. There was an all-time closing high in the stock market on May 13th which appeared, at the time, to be THE top. Over the next four weeks, the market sold off eerily in almost complete daily synchronicity to the four weeks following the 1987 all-time high in August. It appeared that a similar crash wave was forming until the middle of June when the market made a low and started to rally until making a marginal new high in July. If we use the May 13th all-time high as the starting point for the 82 day crash cycle (I am admittedly ignoring the subsequent July marginal new high and treating it as a rebound rally that got out of control and "accidentally" eaked out a new high), we are left with August. 3rd as the most likely day for a crash low in stock prices. Since markets tend to crash one to two days before a new moon (1929 and 1987), this cycle could extend until the second week of August which would allow more time for a crash wave to gain momentum and would also occur within days of the August 11th solar eclipse. It would be enough to make one howl.