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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (435)	8/6/1999 5:57:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Bobby, serious declines happen always from oversold levels. this thread may be on the hot list, but it's mainly one person posting here, namely J.T. otoh, there was a short term cycle low projected for today, so perhaps the market will make a stand on monday. we'll see. hb

To: bobby beara who wrote (435)	8/7/1999 2:51:00 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Hiya yogi beara, Do you think globex on monday morning will look as bad as it does right now?<ggg> GLOBEX PRICES AS OF 08/06/99 03:25 PM TRADE DATE: 08/06/99 CONTRACT LAST NET CHGE CONTRACT LAST NET CHGE S&P 500 SEP99 1311.80 -940 EURO $ SEP99 94.455A -8 E-MINI SEP99 1306.00 -1425 DEC99 94.04A -11.5 DEC99 1321.25A -1425 MAR00 93.97A -14.5 NSDQ100 SEP99 2224.00 -2150 JUN00 93.675A -14 E-NASDAQ SEP99 2220.00 -2350 SEP00 93.60A +1 DEC00 93.36 +1.5 EURO CAN SEP99 94.94P ---- TURN DEC99 93.25P Best, J.T.

To: bobby beara who wrote (435)	8/7/1999 3:24:00 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

bobby, my last post to you was a small joke <ggg>. Hope all is well with you --- you kahuna-ite you. <ggg> Best, J.T.

To: bobby beara who wrote (435)	8/7/1999 11:29:00 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19219

bobby, that's exactly my point. During this tenacious bull run, everytime we got to oversold levels, the bull has found a way to rally. 9 day RSI, McClellan Oscillator, 10 day averages of the NYSE A/D Ratio and rate of change and others. This "Looks like the perfect low for the market to go long". Except for one thing: When sentiment really does change from bull to bear, as I believe it has, brief intermittant rallys off prior low supports are followed immediately by more selling and lower lows. When technical indicators get oversold like they have been for the last several days yet the stock averages fail to mount any significant rally off the lows, it becomes the start of a new trend - a BEAR TREND. To put it more bluntly, when the bull troops (the broad market)don't want to fight the battle for Nirvana heaven anymore, the generals are the last to fight (INTC, MSFT, IBM). And when the generals can't bullshit the troops to keep on fighting for the mother bull, its high time before the generals fall in line to take the fall. The troops now total about 50,000 net new declines over advances since last APRIL of 98'. The worst (longest) breadth negative non-confirmation as measured by the NYSE A/D Index was a 16 month lead time before the market collapsed - that period was in 1972-1973 before the commencement of the 45% Bear Market Decline. We are now approaching month 16 to match that feat. Best, J.T.