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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Berney who wrote (6516)	8/7/1999 1:29:00 PM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

TB:" sit on it and rotate " BKX.X - Banks over-sold sto on daily & weekly charts; fell below 200d EMA around ~843, then important horizontal support broken around ~823. UpTrend Line drawn from CLOSE 27-OCT-98 through CLOSE 09-FEB and CLOSE 14-JUN no longer intact. A technical bounce-back to ~825 or even ~850 area extent could occur but, the BKX.X* downside near-target is* 753 +/-7. BKX.X is one part of NF.X - NYSE Financial Index which includes XBD.X - Brokers and IUX.X - Insurance. These BigBoy financials act like a "leveraged OEX-100 index": when there is growth, they soar; when there is decay, they plunge more than the generalized OEX.X XBD.X is the most leveraged of the three sub-sectors. I consider the bellwethers to be AXP/C/CMB, AIG, and MWD/MER+SCH/EGRP. DRG.X - Drugs over-sold sto on daily & weekly charts; fell below perceived support around DRG.X ~350 area. There is a horizontal support at 336.5 (where we are now) that is consistent with an UpTrend Line drawn between CLOSE 31-AUG-98 and CLOSE 08-OCT-98. there is a short-term fib level around ~332.6 which, IMHO is where long-term investors should begin to accumulate DRG.X* component stocks* by buying-down: the downside near-target is ~318.5 with a good base at ~305.5 Therefore, the down-side risk is no more than -10% from here... not so much a "buying op" as an "accumulation op", given this -10% risk:growth +25% ratio. it is difficult (for me, anyway) to pick "winners" within the DRG.X sector; MRK is not a dominant bellwether - as WMT in RLX.X is - so, this is one of the few sectors truly where in-depth F/A or, diversification is required for best results. I recommend investors use either a sector fund or DRG.X LEAPs or, buy a basket of stocks - including some overlap into BTK.X - BioTech such as AMGN and BGEN, to minimize specific risk. RLX.X - Retail over-sold sto on daily & weekly charts. There is some support right here at 805 +/-5; downside near-target is around ~750; far target (collapse of RLX.X) is around ~620. WMT is a dominant bellwether; diversification within this sector is not really necessary, but other candidates include BBY/TAN - electronics as well as HD - hardware and TWX - consumer services. I no longer invest in SWY - groceries and WAG - pharmacies -- as I believe these businesses are undergoing fundamental changes. WMT's magic lines are ~57, ~50, ~45.75, ~42.5, ~38.875, ~34.625 IMHO, investors should begin long-term accumulation of WMT around 36-13/16, keeping in mind that should the U.S. retail sector completely collapse, WMT can decay to ~28 base. -Steve

To: Berney who wrote (6516)	8/8/1999 8:22:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

Berney: It entertains me to read the MDA/BK thread and read all the disparaging comments regarding the mythical J6P. Glad it catches your funny bone. I suspect whom (J6P) is referencing is the folks that really don't follow the Market, other than listening to the "talking heads" on TV. That "is" their research. And there are a lot of those folks in the Market these days. (IE: Retirement Plans) While true in a long-term bull Market a buy and hold strategy works well, if and when the Market decides to take the opposite tact...it could be disastrous. And I for one would not want to rely on the "talking heads" to reposition my portfolio....<g> Regards, LG