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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gaj who wrote (2517)	8/7/1999 6:52:00 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18137

Hi gaj; Regarding EBAY's website going down, and the stock consequently dropping... There may or may not have been an immediate effect on the stock price in the past. But a month ago or so, the financial press began reporting outages as if they caused the stock to drop. I, of course, don't know if that is what caused it or not. Daytrader don't care. In the short term, stock prices are not determined by fundamentals, or even by each person's perception of those fundamentals, or even by each person's guess as to other people's perception of those fundamentals. Instead, prices are determined by people guessing what other people will guess what other people will guess what other people will guess ... what other people will do in response to the news. As far as EBAY goes, they make money from auctions. So an EBAY outage will decrease earnings somewhat. (I imply here that AMZN's stock price will rise if their site goes TU.) So one can certainly guess that the site failure isn't going to make the stock go up... It's all a game of probabilities. Knowing material information about the company's reliability before the street does can be turned to one's own advantage. The key is whether or not the street will figure it out... My feeling is that the stock didn't start to drop until the moment our squawk box announced the outage. So for those of you running on the internet, this was probably a great chance to beat the Nasdaq direct connect types. As for EGRP, I haven't heard of their down times being mentioned in the financial press, so I wouldn't be inclined to trade that failure. This is not to pass judgement on the trade, I just don't know. -- Carl