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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (42788)	8/8/1999 1:28:00 AM
From: C.K. Houston	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

<Okay. I couldn't bring up the link... Maybe, just maybe, that is the reason for the intermediate technicals going south???> Here's the entire article. I have to type it out, because the "cut & paste" doesn't work here. Markets Fear Hedge Fund Collapse May Be Looming First part of story (previously posted): techstocks.com Here's the remainder ... "There was talk, too, that the Fed was holding back on raising short-term interest rates to keep one of the big securities houses afloat. The problems in the swaps market appear to have initially been caused by concern about the pile-up of corporate issues ahead of the fourth-quarter qhen demand is expected to dry up because of Y2K fears. However, over the last few days talk that a major institution is in difficulty has come to the fore. Some of the big investment banks yesterday admitted privately to sustaining small losses over the past few days but nothing that would result in a material profits hit, let alone a default. Adrian Davis, swaps analyust at ABN-Amor, said yesterday: "Over the past few months spreads have been widening out because of concern at oversupply in the bond market. However, in the last three or four days they have really blown because of concerns about the viability of a financial institution." Said another trader: "The markets are very strained. They are very like they were last year. In these kind of markets people will have lost money." Although hedge funds and Western banks lost up to $30obnwhen the Russians refused to honour their GKO bonds, the real problem that brought LTCM to the brink of collapse was the widening of credit spreads in the swap and high-yielding bonds in ancicipation of yields failing to hits. Cheryl

To: William H Huebl who wrote (42788)	8/8/1999 11:31:00 AM
From: Skeet Shipman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Bill, It doesn't appear many people are concerned about the market. Not many postings on SI thus far this weekend. Or maybe they are in agreement. So far LG. has a unanimous response we are not going to new highs on the S&P. Will we will rally from being oversold is still in question. Personally I think its just summer's brain drain. I checked out what the professional drained brains have been doing over the last month. Well, it seems over the last four weeks analysts increased their yearly estimates on 240 of the S&P 500 and decreased their estimates on 136. I guess that means analysts on average turned more bullish? We do no they seem to run a little behind the curve at times. I was impressed that they reduced estimates on the 136.! Of course, 51 out of the 500 companies do not have positive earnings. Oh - who cares? that's only 10% of the largest companies in the US. And, at least half of these will take a one time write off (again) this year. Combining that with the high fliers in the S&P helps to explain the high PE . Not so long ago someone was saying? It doesn't get any better than this?! Skeet (Phase 2 - Financials? - I'll wait till the morning to flip the gamblers' coin. )