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To: Ram Seetharaman who wrote (19646)	8/8/1999 11:40:00 AM
From: Jock Hutchinson	Respond to of 25814

Ram: No chance that this is a predictably cyclical business. The last downturn was longer in duration than any other semi cycle, and the previous upturn was longer in duration. If one had followed your belief that the semi market is predictable during the past six years, he would have had his head handed to him.

To: Ram Seetharaman who wrote (19646)	8/9/1999 7:10:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25814

Jock used the words "unpredictably cyclical business". I would rather say "predictable" cyclical business, since we all know the semi business hit the pit bottom last Fall when LSI was @ $ 12. Now that business has picked up and the stock is performing well, there aren't that many doomsday predictors. To be realistic , the downturn will come, but definitely not in 1999, and 2000. Maybe not even in 2001. I think towards the end, you start contradicting what you say in the beginning! If you thought the downturn will come in, say, 2002 and you were off by one year (and so the downturn actually happened in 2001), you could lose most or all of your gains. Heck! You could even manage to make a loss if you are off by one year. Just look at what happened to the stock from Oct 1995 to Sept 1996, and you'll get the idea!