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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (22404)	8/7/1999 6:58:00 PM
From: dclapp	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, you asked: 1 - The Market is going below Thursday's (8/5/99) low, before making new highs. 2 - The Market is going to new highs, before going below Thursday's (8/5/99) lows. ---------------- I vote for: 3 - The Market is going to below Thursday's low, before going to still lower lows. :) doug

To: HairBall who wrote (22404)	8/7/1999 7:06:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Markets Fear Hedge Fund Collapse May Be Looming independent.co.uk >>>Looks like old news.

To: HairBall who wrote (22404)	8/7/1999 7:39:00 PM
From: Robert Brooks	Respond to of 99985

1 - The Market is going below Thursday's (8/5/99) low, before making new highs.

To: HairBall who wrote (22404)	8/7/1999 9:24:00 PM
From: LaVerne E. Olney	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I've recently been playing with a spreadsheet using data from Jan,1992 to the present. The figures breakdown as follows: Month DOW Ave. % Change Month NASDAQ Ave. % Change ----- ------------------ ----- --------------------- Apr 3.62 Jan 5.35 Nov 3.03 Nov 2.87 Jan 2.75 Sep 2.76 Oct 2.24 Oct 2.66 Feb 1.40 Jun 2.64 Jun 1.28 Apr 1.72 May 1.22 May 1.51 Dec 0.90 Dec 1.44 Mar 0.87 Jul 0.97 Jul 0.80 Mar 0.16 Sep 0.39 Aug 0.10 Aug -1.95 Feb -0.58 It should be noted that the figures are accentuated by the August losses in 1998 (-11% on the DOW and -15% on the NASDAQ). I would not, however, be surprised to see this performance confirmed again this year. It will be interesting to see if the normally bullish performance Oct-Jan is absent or delayed this year as a result of Y2K concerns.

To: HairBall who wrote (22404)	8/7/1999 10:26:00 PM
From: JG	Respond to of 99985

LG, Monday through Wednesday - the market tanks and goes below. Thursday through Monday - the market retraces - maybe 38% Tueday(24th) - should tank even more into September - then up. JG

To: HairBall who wrote (22404)	8/7/1999 11:42:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi LG 1 - The Market is going below Thursday's (8/5/99) low, before making new highs. But it just might take a few weeks to get there. Gersh

To: HairBall who wrote (22404)	8/8/1999 8:00:00 AM
From: SBerglowe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I vote for 1- with the caveat that maybe it will not make new highs.

To: HairBall who wrote (22404)	8/8/1999 9:36:00 AM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Unanimous for #1 so far! Wow! If you guys are right you should write a book about it! I'm not going to vote since I'm not into short term predictions, but longer-term, let me put it this way, I've placed orders for MDW Jan 50 and EGRP Oct 15 puts! Fun-da-Mental

To: HairBall who wrote (22404)	8/8/1999 10:52:00 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I have the second vote for #3; The market is going below last Thursdays lows, before making new lower lows and not making new highs (choice of 1 and 2 is very assumptive new highs will be made). Best, J.T.

To: HairBall who wrote (22404)	8/8/1999 1:07:00 PM
From: Vitalsigns	Respond to of 99985

1 - The Market is going below Thursday's (8/5/99) low, before making new highs.

To: HairBall who wrote (22404)	8/8/1999 4:57:00 PM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I cast my vote for: ...1 - The Market is going below Thursday's (8/5/99) low, before making new highs. Too much uncertainty and too little volume to push for an answer....Summer vacations take us lower first.

To: HairBall who wrote (22404)	8/8/1999 6:26:00 PM
From: Smooth Drive	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Hello LG, Good question for a weekend. I'll take #1. Perhaps next time you'll ask for a sentence or two on why a person picks an answer. Take care, Eric

To: HairBall who wrote (22404)	8/9/1999 12:02:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 99985

1 - The Market is going below Thursday's (8/5/99) low, before making new highs. ----------------- However I expect a relief rally before new lows..and I expect a new high before Xmas. Jim

To: HairBall who wrote (22404)	8/9/1999 2:22:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

Sorry for the delayed response as I have been extremely busy. I also find myself posting less on this new SI than the old one. <g> I feel we have not put in the bottom yet and will drop further before bouncing. I haven't had time to make a good trading target yet but at a quick glance, 1268 SPX seems like a good area for a short term bounce. What is most important from what I did have time to look at is how the Banking sector indexes and Retail are at make or break points. Any further damage here and this market is going to go a lot lower, maybe not right away but in the near future. Those sectors need a bounce and they need it quick or this could get real ugly fast. People keep talking about the internets but financials are what makes this market tick, no tick... no tock <ggg> I fully expect a bounce soon but feel we need to put in a scare the heck out of everyone bottom first. After that down, bounce then second fall, I figure we will stay fairly low to flat until the Fed meeting where we should get a relief rally as long as they don't raise 50 basis points. The unknown also will be the discount rate. Running short ontime as usual so have to catch up on these posts and get to bed. Good Luck, Lee