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Technology Stocks : Flextronics International (FLEX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MGV who wrote (1154)	8/8/1999 12:17:00 AM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 1422

I just don't get what you mean by "poor calls". My take on these posters is that we were all buyers either before, but for sure, during October and/or November of 1998. I think the FLEXF we were all buying was then around 14-15 (28-30 pre-split). Of course I can really only speak for me-- I don't know what other people ACTUALLY did. But they/we sure posted about it. After it more than doubled, I posted I was taking some profits; several other times I posted I was taking further profits as it went on to triple. An amazing triple, imo. Different from a $2 stock going up 4 points to $6. It was like a 60 or 70 point runnup. I recall Paul K. or 18A saying after the split, he would not consider taking profits before it hit 50. I don't ever recall 18A or Patroller saying they were selling. I do recall Paul saying he was instituting a short-term trading buy after the stock dipped from 50's to about 42. ('Short-term trading buy' is my recollection and interpretation of what he said. I think he keeps a long term position and a smaller trading position.) From my perspective we are all looking at owning a stock that's tripled in under a year. With great prospects still ahead. (With short term gains for those taxable accounts if we sell before October) Much more significantly in my opinion, for Paul and Patroller and a couple of other people, they believe they have studied this business and FLEX thoroughly enough to commit a very substantial part of their funds to it. In my opinion, it's one thing to say a company's going to do well, and put some money down on it; it's quite another to put a substantial life-changing amount on it. (Again just guessing -- I don't know these guys at all-- but I think we're not talking here about 25-35 year-olds with just 50 or 100k to invest in a stock.) I just do not understand what you are saying. If you are saying some of these guys liked FLEX at 55 and they were wrong--- okay. If you are saying they should have sold somewhere along the line and bought the stock you recommended because that stock did better-- okay. But still... we're talking for some people here --- a triple on a large amount of money invested. THAT IS A GOOD CALL. Maybe risky, maybe lucky, maybe smart, maybe dumb, maybe stubborn. But a good call. IMO - having been in the market for a lot of bumpy rides - for these people, their FLEX call (including positions in Jabil,etc), that was the call of a lifetime. After all it's very, very few people who can place big bets and triple out - and do it again and again. Regarding 18A specifically, I don't know what his record is. But I can tell you, I've argued against his picks and his reasons. (I think he accords too great a pe or underlying value to his selections.) In the 3-4 times I've gone up against him--the stocks he's recommended subsequently have gone up and I think substantially so. And we are talking about companies outside of ECM's too. If you think, well, we're both just a bunch of incompetent stock pickers, my response to you is, in the times when I've posted my comments to 18A, I don't ever recall you or anyone else arguing aginst his selections. So it seems odd to me, that now, when FLEX is up so much, when some of his other good calls are forgotten or the companies he posted on were taken over by other companies, now someone comes here and says that his calls represent a contrary indicator. If you really are saying 18A is not good.... man your standards for performance are extreme. Maybe you can consistently do better than the people on this thread. If you can, perhaps you might realize that that level of performance is not sustainable by us mere mortals. I won't respond again to you regarding this discussion. Believe I've used enough of the energy I want to give to it. Paul Senior