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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader J who wrote (10552)	8/8/1999 10:14:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Respond to of 57584

Hi Jeff. Certainly you are watching this broadbased decline that is sparing no high-tech company. From Lucent and Intel right down the line to to the smallest companies like BDE, OCOM or PVII, we've seen the declines. . . . not just in internets. So we sold most all our high-tech / internets by July 15 [same as April 15] and put stops and other defensive measures on SAMs . . . and have since been stopped out of many such positions. And now we are playing the waiting game, as I am sure you are. . . looking for clearer signals that we have smooth sailing ahead. . before jumping back into those sectors. Even then, we will use caution with a close eye on world economy, Y2k, market and consumer sentiment or any other driving factors. And when we do begin taking positions, they will be in phases. . .usually 3, so that we can average up or down as needed. . . this gives up a few percentage points, but is worth the cost in reduced risk. We also will have selected ONLY the finest companies and will be ignoring moves by those deemed marginal. Frog posted a nice BDE link in the preceding post. . . we tend to find these such articles on a regular basis. . .and no my feeling has not changed at all on the stock. But of course I am not going to buck the current trend. . .and would love to load up again at 2.75 if given the opportunity. I don't stay very close to companies. . .I don't like talking to investor relations, unless there is a question about share data or a clarification that is needed. . . and I don't like company specific message boards. . .[too easy to marry a stock and not reap the benefits of TRADING]. . .so there may be some news that I have missed. That may not be the answer you were seeking, but it is the mindset we have adopted throughout the summer. In fact, as of a week and a half ago, my biggest holdings are gold stocks [AU, ASL, ABX, DBRSY, GOLD, GRERF, PDG, SWC]. . . .retail stocks are second, . . .not much left in high-tech at all . . .oil services, energy and REITs . . .you know the boring stuff is where any leftover money is being thrown. . . We are choosing to stay away from short-term plays and even momentum plays, as too many are going south prematurely. We have watched day traders lose money at a higher rate than in other seasons. . .so we choose not to play at all. . . rather watch for bottoms and make our selections. I'm anticipating a rather rocky autumn, then a decline in December on Y2K and come Jan, when all is well. . .off we go to the races. Hope this helps, Rande Is

To: Trader J who wrote (10552)	8/8/1999 10:15:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Respond to of 57584

Jeff, Perhaps your thread and ours could join in a little discussion on which stocks are the best in the various sectors. . .so when we do jump in. . .we don't miss and hit the wrong stocks. .. .I am anticipating a changing of the guard on high-fliers. . .favoring broadband and anything broadband related, set-top boxes, fibre optics, wireless broadband or Next Generation Internet . . also companies holding great investments in other such stocks. I will start off with one rather lengthy question. . .we should approach this as though we were fund managers of our own high-tech funds and wished only to buy the leaders of the various sectors. . . . .NOTE: ALL SHOULD HAVE A CLEAR BROADBAND STRATEGY . . .And each of these sectors needs to have discussion as to WHY one company will dominate and others will follow. . . . here goes: Using industry ratings, projections and other outside measurements, combined with our own extrapolation of how companies will be sitting with earnings by the summer of 2000, which stocks will be the clear dominating leaders [preferably through earnings] in their respective sectors? HIGH-TECH WITH BROADBAND STRATEGY: Chip makers. . . Box makers. . . Software manufacturers. . . Set-top box makers. . . Internet portals. . . Internet advertisers. . . Venture Investment companies like CMGI. . . Online Brokers. . . Online Trader / Brokers. . . Digital Music Delivery. . . E-Commerce winners circle. . . Broadband Network Software Support. . . Broadband Hardware support. . . E-Commerce Support. . . Wireless Broadband Network. . . Global Telecom / Fibre. . . Cable Companies. . . Last Mile ADSL. . . Last Mile Wireless. . . Online Banking. . . Online Communities. . . Information Services. . . Broadband Content Developers. . . Broadband Media. . . Interactive Television Developers. . . High-Tech Foreign. . . That should get us started. . . .If I missed any important sectors, we will add them on later. The important thing is that we UNDERSTAND WHY we make our selections for future winners, emerging leaders and/or undervalued sleepers. . . .and that we make them early, so as not to be caught off-guard should we come upon a REAL market-bottom. We can adjust our picks later, when we see whether or not the fund-managers agree with our picks. . .this is important to the stock's future performance, due to the sustained buying that funds give a stock they select. We want to be first with the truly great picks. Many of the 200 dollar high fliers that had a stock split or two last year, were selling in the single digits or teens this time last year. Remember when we buy them at 10 and others buy them at 20 . . . a 1 dollar gain is 10 percent for us and only 5 percent for them. . . likewise from 30, a 1 dollar gain is only 3.33 percent. . .and from 40 it is just 2.5 percent. And of course getting in early assures us of limited risk, should the stock suddenly turn south. We need to be doing our homework DAILY from here to where we begin re-establishing our positions. Dig up that industry data from trade magazines, online or otherwise. . .and remember to share it. THIS is the advantage of having an organized community of online traders. . . .and regardless of the success or failures of others. . .this pooling together our resources and taking positions early on the "right" stocks is how WE will end up winners once again by this time next year. Thanks to all in advance, Rande Is