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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J Krnjeu who wrote (28893)	8/8/1999 2:03:00 AM
From: Gold Beach	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

Any thoughts as to how the market will act on Monday. As I recall late in the day on Friday on CNBC, it was stated that Monday could be really bad given the light volume and downward slide of stocks in general. It was stated that what was really needed on Friday was a blowout volume with a recovery at the end of the trading session. Also today, I did not hear any good words from Bob Brinker on Internet Stock P/E's. I think he said they were way too high yet. If stocks really drop on Monday it could be a good day to pick up AOL, CSCO, etc.

To: J Krnjeu who wrote (28893)	8/8/1999 2:21:00 AM
From: Chung Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

>> Most like it and consider it "premium content" enough to pay "premium dollars" to belong to it. But there is NO premium content!!! only premium fee, hello >>As for low cost, AOL has Compuserve at 9.95 to go against MSN at 11.95 Compuserve @ 9.95 is only good for 20 hours/month access, monthly unlimited is @ 19.95. >>The only facts I have to back up my statements are the 17 million AOL users. Yes, that is true. but subscriber rate may not keep pace with previous quarter/year, due to bundled deals offered by various PC makers and retailers, Dell offers Dellnet for 12 months free, Gateway has gateway.net 12 months free, Compaq owns part of AltaVista which offer free access with banner however, Micro Center, Best Buy, Circuit City, Compusa offers either prodigy, MSN or Compuserve for $400 rebate, these are recent phenomenum and not likely to disappear, the pool of new subscribers are being "attacked" by all players,something has to give, isp margins are falling, whether the gain in AOL ecommerce volume and margin can make up for the deficit remains to be seen, I doubt it, at least the final combined growth will be slowed. I am not saying AOL stock will drop off the cliff from here, since it has already taken quite a fall, my guess is that it will remain flat until a clearer picture emerges. >>AOL's revenue streams are changing. E-commerce and advertising will soon be over 50% of their income and eventually be the majority of their revenue. The key word maybe eventually, I interpret your view as ST neutral, LT Strong Buy. no? I am watching from the sideline, not just for AOL, the market in general.

To: J Krnjeu who wrote (28893)	8/8/1999 2:29:00 PM
From: Jack T. Pearson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

I haven't seen any analysis of the impact of a cut-rate price for MSN on the smaller ISPs from local ISPs to Mindspring and EarthLink. Most of these ISPs barely survive at $19.95 per month and derive little significant revenue from sources beyond the subscriber fees. I would think they would be most vulnerable to Microsoft cut-rate fees. In fact, I would bet that is where most of MSN's growth will come from. I have heard rumors of a MSN price of $11.95/mo. It is interesting that when you add $11.95 to the price of AOL's "bring-your-own-access" service ($9.95), you are within 5 cents of AOL's full unlimited service. Also, the MSN site does not yet offer the $11.95 price. They offer $19.95/mo after a one month free trial. AOL offers $21.95/mo after 120 free hours. Microsoft appears to be worried about AOL's potential to offer services that compete with Microsoft's core businesses of operating system and basic applications such as MS Word and Excel. Most of these are sold to businesses. Businesses are greatly concerned about applications compatibility with their suppliers and customers. Businesses will be the last to switch from Microsoft. But AOL could offer simple word processor, spreadsheet, and database applications to home users. I suspect there are also some new capabilities that AOL could offer that more conveniently link excerpts from the internet into user databases or documents--maybe something based on HTML, SGML, or XGML. Never forget, in chaos there is opportunity.