To: Mr. Big who wrote (54933 ) 8/8/1999 8:00:00 PM From: kendall harmon Respond to of 120523
MORE ON THE DOLLAR From NBR FridaySUSIE GHARIB: The talk about higher interest rates has given the dollar a boost. It gained a little ground today against most major currencies after declining for weeks now. But as Dennis Moore reports, there's more to the dollar's story. DENNIS MOORE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: It has been the all mighty dollar since the Asian financial crisis began two years ago. As markets crashed around the world, investors fled for safety into dollar assets and as currencies crashed around the world, American consumers and businesses brought billions of newly cheaper imports into this country. It was fun while it lasted. But now there's a turnaround under way. DOUGLAS LEE, ECONOMIST, WASHINGTON ANALYSIS: We're starting to see more and more positive signals coming out of other parts of the world. And the investment opportunities in other parts of the world are beginning to look more and more attractive. MOORE: When that happens, money starts moving. The buzz about Japan got better this spring. You can virtually see the money flowing into Japanese markets beginning in the middle of May when the dollar peaked against the yen. Global capital flows vastly overwhelmed trade flows and the Bank of Japan has been intervening in the markets to stave off a sharp drop in the dollar. LEE: Now I don't expect that the dollar is going to be in serious trouble, but it's very difficult to gauge how much markets may move currencies over a short period of time because they can be very, very volatile. MOORE: Just look at what's happened to the Euro, the once heralded competitor for the dollar started tanking on day one of trading and nearly hit one to one with the dollar before suddenly last month turning on a dime. What happened? C. FRED BERGSTEN, DIR., INSTITUTE FOR INTL ECONOMICS: People have reevaluated the prospects for Europe, higher growth, more attractive profit possibilities and maybe interest rates turning upward. All that has been bullish for the Euro. MOORE: None of this is particularly bullish for the U.S. markets. The risk isn't just foreign investors deciding the pastures look greener at home. But American investors deciding a profit drought could be coming in this country. BERGSTEN: We are close to full employment. There is inflation pressure. Interest rates could be driven up sharply if the dollar fell. That would drive the stock market down sharply. We could get a kind of hard landing. MOORE: In Bergsten's view and others , the dollar's fade is the number one risk to the continued expansion of this economy. Dennis Moore, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.