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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (2955)	8/8/1999 1:27:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

decisionpoint.com I think the accelerated decline will occur after options expiry a week after next Friday. Almost every month this year, the two weeks after options expire have been very weak. If you're looking for a bounce, after a retest of 1280-1287 by the SPX this week, you might play for a week or so. The Dollar index is sitting on support at the low end of its trend channel. Since it stabilized there for the meantime, the market may stabilize at 10,500 or SPX 1280. The Dollar will probably break down through the support since I've read that the European trading companies are underhedged in Euros and need to purchase more Eurodollars. The Volatility Index (VIX) is nowhere near extremes seen at the lows on the market in the run-of-the-mill pullbacks twice this year (February and May/June). I expect Nasdaq to pullback to 2350 (200-day moving average April-June lows) or to 2250 the yearly lows. If the Fed goes into a series of interest rate hikes like 1994, the rallies could be quite brief and sharp for the remainder of the year and into next year. Interest rate hikes this year could be in August 24 and mid-October. I would expect the internets to really get hit by tax-loss selling in the Fall. I'm somewhat puzzled by how well the semiconductor stocks have held up so far. They may hold up okay and probably may be purchased for a run up to the October earnings period after which they'll probably get slammed good. There's a two-year cycle in the semiconductor index and it usually takes three months for them to top out. Just my opinion.