Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bharat H. Barai who wrote (47561)	8/8/1999 6:21:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

bhb, i'd agree that some of those millions of cuts is flash, but not all. the flash market is much smaller than dram. a glut can start there very quickly. >>Nobody can continue to make DRAM at loss for ever. Ultimately, the law of supply and demand catches up.<< i've always agreed w/ this. however, last time i checked, chip equip mfrs are at or near all time highs b/c they are selling so much equipment. i do assume this equipment isn't being used to keep papers from blowing away... bhb, the dram market, and mu, has been nothing but hype for years. man,1998 was going to be a blow out - or so they yelled at me in 1997. then it was 1999. doh! now the hype is for 2000. i think that this hype hurts the prospect of a turn around. everyone builds capacity expecting a huge turn around that never comes. they are always 6 months away... forever... if you lose a $20 bill and make $20 an hour, you shouldn't spend more than an hour to look for it. however, if you think you are about to find it at every point in time, you can spend a day looking for it. same principle. dram will turn... when everyone is pessimistic about its prospects. then capexes will drp and so will supply growth. i guarantee you that a $17,000,000,000 market cap for mu doesn't represent pessimism.