Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (22461)	8/8/1999 7:06:00 PM
From: Smooth Drive	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Hey LG, The ole LG Overall Market Composite (OMC) took it on the chin all week and then reversed up on Friday. But -- it's a very weak reversal that I don't believe will hold and expect another reversal down with another sell signal. * 1760 X * 1750 X O * 1740 X O * < Bearish Res Line 1730 X O 1720 X X O 1710 X O X O 1700 X O X O 1690 X O O 1680 7 O 1670 X O X 1660 X O X O 1650 X O X O 1640 X X X O X O 1630 X O X O X O O 1620 X O X O X 8 1610 X O X O X O 1600 X O X X O X O X 1590 X O X O X O O X 1580 X O X O X X * O X 1570 X O O X O X * + O X 1560 X O X O X * + O X 1550 O X O X + O 1540 O X X O X + * + 1530 O X O X O X + + * 1520 O X O X O X + + * 1510 O X 6 X O + + * < Bearish Sup Line 1500 O X O X + + 1490 O X O + + 1480 O + + < 1st Bullish Resistance Line Friday's close: 1579.50; 50 DMA is 1625.77; 150 DMA is 1556.18; and the 200 DMA is 1480.47 So far it's passed through a number of support points, both horizontal and trend lines, since its high of 1760 on 7/16/99. You can see that the 1st Bullish Resistance Line off the bottom held on Thursday. The official Bullish Support Line is sitting down at 1410. The 1st Bearish vertical price objective is 1500, and the 2nd is 1370. This chart is long term bullish (trading above its Bullish Support Line down at 1390) and short term bearish (on a sell signal at 1620). The Bullish Support Line was formed at the low of 910 which happened on 10/8/98. The unofficial Bearish Resistance Line up at 1740 is not official but it is in in control. The bad news with the S&P 500 5 X 15 P&F chart is the fact that it broke through its Bullish Support Line on Thursday and became long term bearish with the Bearish Resistance Line now official. These trend charts, together with the fact that the New York Stock Exchange Bullish % reversed back down to Bear Confirmed on Wednesday -- well, I don't see much upside right now. Take care, Eric

To: HairBall who wrote (22461)	8/8/1999 11:48:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi LG .. "Eric Stevens: Perhaps next time you'll ask for a sentence or two on why a person picks an answer. Hey Eric...nothing stopping you from giving your reasons...<g> " OK <G> mouthfull time: As I said .. I voted for #1 with the qualification that it may take a few weeks to make a new low .. To start with, I think that we will have a overall positive day tomorrow. (could be wrong .. been there, done that, grounded the kid for trying it) We are so oversold right now that any move up could well trigger the buy the dippers to start peeing their pants. Anyway: Data for Monday 8/9/99 Globex opening trigger values: Buy trigger : 111 (1308.11) Sell trigger : -322 (1303.78) Prem values for the day: buy trigger 7.82 fair value 5.78 sell trigger 3.49 Black fork tines: Upper : 1392.39 (92.1) Mid : 1356.82 (56.53) Lower : 1321.25 (20.96) Red fork tines: Upper : 1249.09 (-51.2) Mid : 1328.77 (28.48) Lower : 1408.46 (108.17) 16 day SMA 1338.82 (38.53 ) 20 day SMA 1357.58 (57.29 ) 36 day SMA 1359.37 (59.08 ) 50 day SMA 1343.97 (43.68 ) 138 day 1314.96 (14.67 ) A note about the slope of the 138 SMA. At this time this slope is just slightly positive: .000328 points per day. Very close to flat. At this time, if we maintain the current 16 day slope this SMA will turn negative on Friday the thirteenth. Two days after the solar eclipse on 8/11/99. This time frame can change a lot with each trading day .. for instance if we close up 10 points on the SPX the projection pushes out to 8/26. Historicaly the 138 day SMA turned south on 9/1/98 and returned back to positive on 11/10/98. The time before that it was negative was December of 94. Globex SPX futures seem to indicate a positive open. Currency futures seem to indicate follow through. These can change before the morning. However the trend seems to have been set for the day. Based on the above I expect to see: SPX to move up into the 9:45 time frame. Then dip or stay flat until ~10:10. Turn again north until ~11:10. The movement from 9:45 - 10:10 might show the direction for the afternoon.