To: ahhaha who wrote (13775 ) 8/9/1999 12:47:00 AM From: Jing Qian Read Replies (1) | Respond to
OK, Your article is long but I can summarize it in two sentence, if I didn't misunderstand you:My comment : Modern history has not been long enough to support your prediction of a long down trend from here. So far the modern history of USA only supports the prolonged prosperity in spite of some blips like 29 and 74. Since 1900 the society only experienced 2 significant advances propelled by technology. The first is steam engine, the second is microprocessor. You can argue that these advancement didn't prevent the crashes of 1929 and 1974. But look at the DOW since 1900, did you see it has been rising since 70 of 1900 to 10,000 of 1999? Now we are at the onset of a new and more powerful advance powered by the global connection made possible by the Internet. OK, I can accept that there may be short term volatility. But there is no long term down trend as you predicted. It's not because I am young and optimistic, but I am rational.My comment The key here is the "quickly". No, it won't be that quick. I was brought up in a 3rd world country and I know how much effort there need to be to bring them up the speed required for the modern society. These country's problem is not merely lack of technology, but lack of mental and culture readiness. They tend to view corruption as a better way to get things done. You give them all the technology and they give you an Asian crisis. I know how that is, their movement is anything but fast. 20 years is probably very optimistic for them to even get close to the situation USA is enjoying now. But USA wouldn't sit idle during all that time. You must live in an Ivory tower to believe that they can catch up to us in a quickly manner. So your argument is not valid.
