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Non-Tech : Knight/Trimark Group, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Joseph Silent who wrote (3306)8/9/1999 5:54:00 PM
From: Miles  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10027
 
the time to buy is when the posting on this thread slows down :)

miles



To: Joseph Silent who wrote (3306)8/9/1999 5:58:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10027
 
Joseph, I certainly was taken aback by how little support there was at 48 1/2 - though I still think there was capitulations sell-off at 35. It had all the hallmarks (or at least 3 out of 4). However, as I wrote in a post on capitulation, there can be circumstances under which a stock will decline even after capitulation, namely two: a)fundamentals have changed, so even hardcore LT B&H start selling, and b)there is massive short-selling. Under either of those circumstances, the stock will keep sinking - a short doesn't need to own the shares to sell - so the fact that most "real" sellers capitulated (longs), doesn't stop the selling pressure. What am I supposed to think? After all, I notice that FBCO is selling like crazy. Am I to conclude that these are individual sellers who didn't get out during the capitualtion? All selling through FBCO? Hmmm...

Clearly there is something else going on. Either FBCO has a sh|tload of shares to sell, or they are shorting. Maybe they know something we don't. This is what I suspect.

But whatever - TA has certainly not been terribly useful recently. I rely a great deal more on the trading action, and that has been ugly. Friday saw exactly this kind of end of day action - massive selling with accelerating volume, and a close near the low of the day. That usually indicates the action will carry over to the next day.

The only small light at the end of the tunnel that seems to indicate we may be close to a bottom, or have even reached it, is that my special indicator flashed "green". My special indicator is a guy who started trading about a year ago with some inheritance money, and so far has managed to lose close to 2 million dollars. I begged him to stop trading about a month into his misadventure, but I'm afraid he is addicted (and he refuses to face up to his gambling problem). In any case, since he refuses to quit, and refuses to listen to me (he thinks he's being "a contrarian", while I "just follow the trend", sigh), I am now simply a witness to the tragedy. Well, he has been a PERFECT contrary indicator. I've actually used him on occassion to find tops and bottoms. Well, he first bought NITE at 61 (I should have sold immediately, but I hung on for another 1/2 point or so). I begged him to sell. He refused ("contrarian") - NITE kept dropping. I myself thought the carnage would stop at 48 1/2, but he always kept loading up because "it's really cheap now" - which should have been a clue to me that NITE is headed lower. Well, today he called me and announced that he sold at the close for 31 3/4. Loss - $167K (while he's an extreme case, this stock seems to have burned a lot of "buy on the dip" people). Well, if history repeats, NITE will go up tomorrow, never mind what TA or trading action tells us today.

Morgan