To: John Paquet who wrote (1086 ) 8/9/1999 7:16:00 PM From: goldsnow Respond to of 1239
8/9 17:32 Crude Oil Rises to 21-Month High in New York as OPEC Lowers Production By Mark Pittman Crude Oil Rises to 21-Month High as OPEC Drains Glut (Update1) (Adds background and quotes from 8th paragraph to conclusion.) New York, Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a 21-month high, its fourth straight increase, on expectations that vacation demand for gasoline and output cuts by producers will end a glut. Americans are consuming more fuel than normal as they take to the highway for summer vacations, and U.S. inventories of oil and gasoline fell in four of the past five weeks. The drain in supplies was spurred by a 7.1 percent cut in global output by the world's top exporters, which could help boost prices further, traders said. ''First, the crude gets cut, then refineries cut back and pretty soon there's less gasoline and heating oil,'' said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy risk management at Fimat USA Inc. in New York. Crude oil for September delivery rose 39 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $21.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the highest price since October 1997. In London, September Brent crude oil rose 45 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $20.51 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange, the highest closing price since Oct. 10, 1997. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed in March to output cuts equivalent to almost 6 percent of world supply, or 4.3 million barrels a day. The producers made 95 percent their pledged reductions in July, according to Bloomberg estimates. Supplies of petroleum products, particularly in Europe, were also crimped as Russia reduced fuel exports to make sure domestic supplies are sufficient. Gasoline for September delivery on the Nymex rose 0.21 cent to 66.04 a gallon, while heating oil for September delivery rose 0.68 cent to 55.21 cents a gallon. Price increases accelerated when pre-arranged buy orders were triggered at $21.12 a barrel, the previous inter-day high, Kilduff said. Some of the buy orders came from speculative commodity funds, which have been fueling the rally since its inception in February, Kilduff said. Crude oil inventories dropped only once in the past seven weeks while gasoline supplies fell once in the past eight weeks, the American Petroleum Institute reported last Tuesday. Supplies of petroleum products, in Europe were crimped by Russia, which is cutting exports to make sure domestic supplies are sufficient. Tighter supplies and higher profits from selling gasoline prompted the Royal Dutch/Shell Group, Europe's second-biggest refiner after Exxon Corp., to increase production. Gasoline prices are up 25 percent since April 25, when Shell first reduced the amount of oil it processed in Europe by 10 percent. The company followed that with another 10 percent cut on May 11. Shell has 16 refineries in Europe with a capacity of 1.4 million barrels a day. Since Shell first cut output, refiner profitability on gasoline sales has increased 51 percent, based on New York futures. ''You should see all the refiners crank up production,'' said Victor Yu, an analyst at Refco Inc. in New York. Profit margins have been so good recently, ''you'd think they'd make a ton of gasoline.'' On April 26, the profit for selling gasoline compared with the cost of crude oil was $4.45 per barrel on the Nymex. It was $6.52 a barrel today. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- © Copyright 1999, Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved.