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Pastimes : Let's Talk About Our Feelings!!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacques Chitte who wrote (50349)	8/9/1999 8:12:00 PM
From: The Philosopher	Respond to of 108807

I think that what Joan means is that the native birth/death rates are fairly stable. But that doesn't account for immigration and for illegals. Certainly the Pacific Northwest, too, is growing much too rapidly for its own good. Serious dislocations, serious growth management problems.

To: Jacques Chitte who wrote (50349)	8/9/1999 10:06:00 PM
From: jbe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108807

Lather, you've forced me to do some quickie web research on population growth. For this I thank you -- I always like to learn something new! Here is what I have found, so far. 1) First of all, a comparison of the birth rates of Iran (above replacement levels), US (replacement level), and Italy (below replacement level): sru.edu 2) Actual percentage increases in U.S. population, 1900-1977(under 1% per year for last five years recorded): npg.org 3) U.S. Census projections for population growth 1998-2500. The huge difference between the low-end projections (a measly 5.3% increase in 52 years) to the high-end projection (91%) indicates to me that there is even less consensus here than there is on global warming: npg.org 4) The above statistics come from the web site of Negative Population Growth (NPG), an anti-immigration organization that advocates the limitation of immigration to 100,000 a year. Not surprisingly, NPG attributes 60% of the projected high-end increase to future immigrants and their descendants (not the "native" birth rate). Judge their case for yourself: npg.org 5) Perhaps the most interesting statistics of all come from a United Nations Population Division report, which indicates that the birth rate worldwide has actually been falling. Expected population increases will thus largely be dependent on increased longevity, impeded by some degree by the spread of AIDS/HIV. (Emphasis mine.) According to the 1998 revised estimates and projections of the United Nations, the world population currently stands at 5.9 billion persons and is growing at 1.33 per cent per year, an annual net addition of about 78 million people. World population is expected to reach 6 billion in 1999 and rise to 7.3 to 10.7 billion by 2050, with a figure of 8.9 billion considered to be most likely. This last figure represents a downward shift from 9.4 billion in the 1996 Revision, primarily due to a new assumption that future fertility rates in "below-replacement fertility" countries will not return to replacement levels, and the projected effects of AIDS-related mortality. Fertility is now declining in all regions of the world, according to the 1998 Revision. The global average fertility level now stands at 2.7 births per woman, compared with 5.0 during the early 1950s. In the last 25 years, the number of children per couple has fallen from 6.6 to 5.1 in Africa, from 5.1 to 2.6 in Asia, and from 5.0 to 2.7 in Latin America and the Caribbean. During the period 1995 to 2000, the total fertility rate (TFR) is estimated to be at or below the level of 2.1 children per woman in 61 out of 228 countries or areas of the world, including nearly all of the more developed countries. The report also documents the rising aging population. In 1998, 66 million persons in the world were aged eighty or over, or about one of every 100 persons. This number is expected to increase almost six-fold by 2050 to reach 370 million persons. Finally, the 1998 Revision demonstrates a devastating mortality toll from HIV/AIDS. In the 29 hardest hit African countries, the average life expectancy at birth is estimated at forty-seven years, seven years less than it would have been in the absence of AIDS. Published by the United Nations Population Division ucsusa.org Some possibly interesting links, for your own perusal: ucsusa.org As for all that building activity in your area, D.C., and Atlanta, seems to me that is not a sign of a growing population, but a shifting population, possibly a still urbanizing population. Americans have always been gypsies. In the meantime, some states (the Dakotas, for example)have been experiencing a net decline in population. Haven't looked into the statistics for that yet, however. Joan