To: mnreddy who wrote (3372 ) 8/10/1999 4:03:00 PM From: Herschel Rubin Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10027
It would be very constructive to see a close near today's open, rather than in the high $20's. If so, I would like to invent the term: "Double Capitulation." Just as we have "double bottoms", is it not reasonable to define a "double capitulation" where the two capitulations may not necessarily be at the same price level (asymmetrical)? Again, using NITE as an example, it is entirely plausible that a stock (such as NITE) was READY for a capitulation day and had it, BUT other external factors happened (such as the market swoons) that were wholly unrelated to the stock's fundamentals or technicals then caused ANOTHER capitulation day, bringing the stock lower, but still ready for a trend reversal. Since we all agreed that last Tuesday HAD to be a capitulation day with its 10M shares traded and very strong close, today is shaping up to be a capitulation day with 8.5M shares so far and an intraday trend reversal. Of key importance is the heavy retail selling (ISLD, INCA, etc.) In my view, this confirms that we've been in a "margin call implosion." Until NITE breaks the trend and holds a key price level for several days, the margin call implosion can continue indefinitely. That's why capitulation days are of key importance at this juncture for NITE. Oilbabe, excellent comparison of the brokerage sector with the Oil Sector 6 months ago! Bought RIG and made a mint in that move. And the sentiment parallels you mention (comparing then for the OSX and now for NITE) are indeed profound. Cnyngirl, your contrarian use of analyst downgrades at the bottom is classic. They always seem to downgrade when they want to accumulate! This correction is quite healthy for the markets as it has effectively blown the foam off the top of the brewski. NASDAQ over 1.1 BILLION shares today. "Volume and Volatility are NITE's friend"