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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Rudd who wrote (7991)	8/10/1999 4:49:00 PM
From: Mike 2.0	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78817

Bob and thread, speaking of accounting debacles that may now be contained or somewhat contained (?), has anyone looked at McKesson HBOC (MCK). Interestingly, Bill Miller of Legg Mason Value Trust (yes his definition of "value" is not Graham-based, but his performance has been exceptional) has a new and huge position. Comments appreciated.

To: Bob Rudd who wrote (7991)	8/11/1999 1:17:00 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Respond to of 78817

BRK: Y2K risk Gen Re, as of Nov 98, had spent 42% less than average insurer on Y2k remediation...hard to draw hard conclusion from this, but it's not reassuring. Berkshire, as of same date, had spent less than average, but not much and hard to tell if non- insurance operation may have clouded issue. Source data: bestweek.com Hurricane Risk: From prospectus on Gen Re purchase "SUPER-CAT INSURANCE. Berkshire believes that in recent years it has been the largest writer in the world of "super-cat" insurance, whereby reinsurers (such as Berkshire) assume a risk of large losses from mega-catastrophes such as hurricanes or earthquakes. This business has produced pre-tax underwriting gains of approximately $283 million, $167 million and $152 million in 1997, 1996 and 1995, respectively, but is virtually certain to produce huge losses in some years in the future. Berkshire's present underwriting standards (which are subject to change) seek to limit Berkshire's exposure to a loss from a single event to $1 billion in excess of the premium earned. Prices have fallen in the super-cat business and Berkshire's volume in this line of business may significantly decline." On greater risk of Hurricane activity: La Nina years tend to be much worse and - tropical.atmos.colostate.edu I saw a discovery channel bit on liklihood and potential devastation of a Hurricane hitting NYC...More likely and more destruction than you'd think. If one heads that way, I'd consider shorting Berkshire 'till it passes. The Hurricane season ends Nov 30 [officially - but someone may forget to tell the Hurricanes that]. The Y2k selloff could extend to end of year or beyond, if there is a serious problem. None of this is real hard data, of course, just food for thought and discussion. bob