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To: Sig who wrote (138831)	8/10/1999 4:52:00 PM
From: Murrey Walker	Respond to of 176387

OT Sort of. Is TA a useful tool when the market in general is going through it's anemic summer swings? I thought TA should be applied in such a manner as to discount swings (up or down) that we're going through. If TA is applied to the downdraft we're now going through, doesn't the majority of stocks get the same bad ”press” from the TA ers?

To: Sig who wrote (138831)	8/10/1999 5:17:00 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Sig: It's nice to have folks like Marry Meeker around when you have economists making predictions like this... <<Tuesday August 10, 4:33 pm Eastern Time Y2K still likely to spark recession: forecaster By Jim Wolf WASHINGTON, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Despite progress fixing the Y2K computer glitch, there is still a 70 percent chance that it will spark a global recession, Edward Yardeni, a top U.S. economic forecaster, said on Tuesday. ''Indeed, Y2K could cause another energy crisis,'' Yardeni, chief economist at the investment bank Deutsche Morgan Grenfell in New York, said in an update of his famously gloomy Y2K predictions. Yardeni said the other most likely cause of a Y2K-related recession were possible breakdowns in the ''global just-in-time manufacturing system'' because of weak links in the supply chain. ''I am truly amazed by the complacency about Y2K given the lack of good data,'' he added in a report posted on his Web site, www.yardeni.com. Yardeni acknowledged that he was alone among noted economists and Wall Street investment strategists to forecast a Y2K-related recession. Two years ago, when he started to research the software problem's disruptive potential, Yardeni concluded that there was a 30 percent chance of its causing a global downturn. About a year ago, he raised the odds to 70 percent, adding that he might scale back his forecast if developments warranted. ''I remain at 70 percent,'' he said in the survey posted Tuesday. He said he was heartened by upbeat progress reports but concerned that most were not independently verified. ''Even more worrisome is the lack of any good information on preparations around the world,'' Yardeni said. ''Like everyone else, I am hoping for the best. But I think it is a big mistake to plan for the best, rather than for plausible worst-case Y2K scenarios.'' He said the most serious Y2K problems were likely to occur in industries that have long and complex global supply chains, lots of suppliers and are heavily dependent on information technology systems. ''This certainly describes the oil industry,'' said Yardeni, who has compared possible Y2K fallout to the recession that followed the 1973-1974 oil supply cutbacks by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The so-called Y2K glitch could cause computers to misread the year 2000 and potentially cause wide-ranging systems failures. Bruce McConnell, director of the United Nations-backed International Y2K Cooperation Center, a kind of clearinghouse for Y2K data, urged governments Tuesday to disclose more about system readiness and about contingency plans for systems that have not yet been upgraded. ''In the absence of information, markets will assume the worst,'' he said in an interview with Reuters in his Washington office. ''We don't know whether this is going to be a 1 on the Richter scale or a 7.'' John Koskinen, chair of President Clinton's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, said Thursday that he was increasingly confident that basic U.S. infrastructure -- notably telephones, power and aviation -- would handle the date change without significant disruptions. But Koskinen, in the third of four scheduled quarterly reports, said it was still "difficult to gather reliable data about other countries' progress.">> ---------------------------------------------------------------- IMO, Yardeni is clearly forecasting the worse case scenario and I feel much more bullish than he does. If we all really agreed with him, then we could liquidate our portfolios and get the camping gear ready <G>....I tend to see the glass as half full and will not be scared by Yardeni. I'm sure he makes some good money off his books and speaking fees. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. Well, if you and Mohan would start buying BIG TIME tomorrow the market would recover.!! Best Regards, Scott

To: Sig who wrote (138831)	8/10/1999 7:36:00 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 176387

Re: <<15:55 [AMZN] JANUS CAPITAL CORP. REVEALS 10.1% STAKE IN AMAZON.COM IN SEC FILING.>> This concerns me....They are either doing some serious trading or they evaluate fundamentals much differently than I do. On the other hand I do know that the Janus Fund Family had the highest 5 year performance of any Fund Family out there. I think it is the smaller and more aggressive funds that are buying the AMZN. I would be surprised if the Janus Fund or the Flagship Janus 20 Fund had large positions in Amazon. Last time I checked they liked to invest in market leaders that consistently were increasing their earnings <G>. Last weekend I was reading an IBD issue and I did see that the Janus Mercury Fund sold over 1/2 million DELL shares in the most recent period. Amazon was one of their top purchases. Hmmm....I don't own that Fund and I have a hunch that they may regret that those decisions. Which company has a better business model? DELL or Amazon? If you were a Fund Manager and were entrusted with billions of dollars of investor money.....which stock would you want as one of your top 10 positions? Unfortunately the Janus Mercury Fund no longer has DELL in its top 10. I believe that the Janus 20 Fund still does. Freeus may be able to verify things for me. It is interesting to watch these Fund Flows. I sure hope DELL has a Bloooooooow Ouuuuut Quarter..!!!! It's time to reward the LONG TERM shareholders. That might catch the attention of some of the impatient Fund Managers that are convinced that greener pastures are over in Amazon land. Next time they want to trade some DELL for Amazon I think I'll have the Fund Manager call Chuzz <VBG>. DELL is an E-Commerce powerhouse that actually will make money. I'm not sure if Amazon ever will. Best Regards, Scott

To: Sig who wrote (138831)	8/11/1999 6:15:00 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 176387

~OT~ The Internuts are hard to value....Geez, I wonder why <G>...FYI... <<Stanford study says Internet companies hard to value Reuters PALO ALTO, Calif. (8/11/99) -- A Stanford University professor studying the ways financial analysts rate Internet stocks has concluded the process is highly subjective, involving untested financial models and even some spin. The ''buy,'' ''sell'' or ''hold'' ratings that Wall Street analysts place on stocks can influence investors, especially some of the less sophisticated investors who have been drawn into market seeking fast returns on Internet stocks. But Professor Ezra Zuckerman and four of his students in the Stanford Graduate School of Business interviewed several analysts who follow the Internet industry as well as Internet c Stanford Graduate School of Business interviewed several analysts who follow the Internet industry as well as Internet c ompany officials, and found that the process of ''rating'' these companies is particularly arbitrary, often regarded as more of an art than a science. ''My opinion is (that this is) very much an art. Not a science at all,'' said one Internet company official quoted in the study. Analysts issue earnings estimates and ratings to help guide investors. But because these analysts work for investment firms that want to sell stock, seasoned investors know to be wary of excessively bullish recommendations. In defense of analysts, the study points out that the investment banks they work for would not be backing an Internet company in the first place unless it believed in its promise. The Internet phenomenon, however, may be making the balance between serving the company, the investment bank and the investing public even more precarious, the study suggests. Since most Internet companies have yet to turn a profit, they cannot be valued under commonly accepted methods, such as the price-earnings ratio, which measures a share price relative to the amount of money the company makes, and typically has been a good way to judge if a stock is fairly valued. In the absence of earnings, all sorts of new ''metrics'' are being used, and analysts may be free to use the one that puts a company in the best light. ''Many companies,'' the study says, ''... are actively promoting the metrics that would make their stock appear attractive relative to their peers. Thus, story or spin is increasingly important for both analysts and companies.'' One Internet company official said the Internet ratings process can work in a backward fashion in which analysts seek a rating that would be consistent with a stock's performance. ''The basic ongoing joke is that they try to find a creative way to justify the valuation that they know is going to happen in the marketplace,'' the company official said. ''They (the analysts) come up with creative ways of doing it -- they'll look at multiples of revenue, multiples of customers, how much is the customer trading for, multiples of members, as well as earnings multiples. ... The problem they keep having is that a lot of these measurements conflict with one another.'' The study also notes that analysts are not the only ones who have the power to hype an Internet stock. The press is also highly influential and that Internet companies are savvy about making use of the press. Several of the companies and analysts interviewed for the study suggested that the Internet industry averages at least four times the number of press releases as normal businesses in more mature industries. In the absence of hard financial data, these releases often help boost a stock price.>>