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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (22630)	8/10/1999 6:26:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I don't consider a 100 point drop in the Dow or today's 150 point drop a downdraft or capitulation.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (22630)	8/10/1999 7:00:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, It is obvious that the market is weak, but also obvious that the technicals right now are also oversold. I wont go into the technical details since they are quite obvious right now. Not that I want to deal with the subjective, but here is something that I have been thinking about. Its obvious that bearishness has increased recently, on the other hand there are still significant signs of complacency as you mention in the PUT/CALL ratios. The average J6P I speak to are getting nervous but still have not sold significantly. Although bearishness has increased, bullishness has not decreased significantly in terms of selling. Im hearing on the various threads how extremely bearish eveyone is, but I believe that it is more equal than favoring either the BULLs or BEARs. Im not saying that there is alot of people buying, but it appears that there really isnt alot of people selling either, as indicated by the volume. So for this discussion, lets say I am correct that we have reached a level where the buyers and sellers are about even. Now lets tie in a common subjective belief - that the market benefits the smallest number. Since, for this discussion, the buyers and sellers are about even, neither side should benefit since neither side is overwhelming the other. Using a bit of YinYang, I am concluding on a subjective basis that the market may possibly just remain flat for a week or so to fool the majority. As mentioned previously, I am still expecting ZIG-ZAGs with a slight upward bias thru expiration week. These ZIG-ZAGS should be volitile which will help fool the majority both long and short(WHIPSAW CITY). As for the ZIG-ZAG/TRADING range, Im suspecting 1275-1320 for the SPX with a slghter possibility that it could get as high as 1340. It is more apparrent in the DOW than the SPX or NAZ, but for the last 8 days the DOW has traded in the approximate range of 10,500-10,800. Switching back to my short-term technicals, I am noticing a similar pattern compared to the STAIR-STEPs last year, where the market was range trading for 1-4 weeks(3 different STAIR-STEPs). Hope I made some sense. seeya