To: zuma_rk who wrote (8975 ) 8/11/1999 1:19:00 AM From: Erik T Respond to of 20297
I just get the feeling that if you had no clue whatsoever as to where the stock was trading, you'd read that release and come away thinking that this company really has it's shit together and is smartly poised to commandeer this industry... Or, you might just lump this stock in with all the other faltering net stocks. I think you need to understand why Checkfree is not "just another net company" to appreciate what has been said here. This weeks Business Week has an article on "The Great Net Stock Sell-Off." Among the reasons given for the sell-off include: 1) "Once profitable companies such as CNET are deciding to go into the red as they plow money into massive marketing campaigns to grab eyeballs." 2) "Online retailers are slashing prices to keep volume up, cutting into earnings or postponing profitability." Sounds similar to Checkfree's situation. Profitable. Now not profitable to attract more customers. If it is a good enough reason to sell other net stocks, shouldn't Checkfree be sold as well? This is where I think the discerning eye to detect differences is important. *Unlike many net companies, they really do not currently have significant competition; of course, this may change. *Their business is extremely complex, as evidenced by the major players who have failed in this space. I personally could open an online bookstore, but could never reproduce e-billing. *They have not experienced the incredible run-up in valuation that other net stocks have. *All the other reasons rehashed over and over. But, to investors largely unfamiliar with the details of Checkfree's position and plan, and the media, for sure, Checkfree can be lumped into the category of "Net Sell-Off." "Over the next five years, more than half of the companies that have gone public will likely be out of business." Checkfree will not be one of these. Instead, they will likely prosper from a sound business strategy born before the internet age, but with technology extremely well-suited to the efficiencies people and business can extract from the net. But in the short-term I do not expect anyone to see these differences. Like TLindt said months ago, "Now they need to execute." Until then, we wait, watch and hope. Erik (IMHO)