To: Educator who wrote (13964 ) 8/10/1999 8:00:00 PM From: Jing Qian Respond to of 29970
Ed, Bad luck? No, every fledgling small startup like ATHM will have to go through several trials like this to grow big. We are learning, and ATHM as a company is also learning. ATHM must climb the wall of doubts before it can reach the stardom. My belief can be summarized below: 1) Armstrong won't be so crazy to kill ATHM by drastically forcing ATHM to restructure. Armstrong will be wise enough to keep status quo for ATHM. Armstrong is giving Excite@Home a chance to grow in spite of the disagreement of Jermo's Excite purchase. By all means Armstrong will not reduce ATHM to a dumb pipe at this moment because by so doing and internal war between various MSOs will start and that's detrimental to the speedy roll out of Cable modem. The rumor, if we assume it an intentional leak, is get audiences ready for the eventual open access. It also serve to take down AT&T's image of anti-open access. 2) By all means TJ and GB will try very hard to grow ATHM. The rumors are a wake up call for them that they can only be protected no longer than 3 years. But from my analysis, ATHM is the only company that owns the cable backbone and the only company that has the experience to scale the infrastructure. After 2002, AOL will have to lease ATHM's network instead of spending time and money to recreate the wheel. I believe with the current projection, a 5 million sub number is within reach by end of 2002. From above, I conclude that ATHM's future is pretty secured. Whether it will be a future AOL, we don't know. But I can say that both AOL and ATHM will be a winner in this Internet revolution. We only don't know who will be the biggest winner.