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Gold/Mining/Energy : Newmont Mining(NEM) & Newmont Gold(NGC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lymond who wrote (325)	8/11/1999 2:39:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 587

An economy is a wealth generating system which moves in time between point A and point B. The Lagrangian "action" of an economy when minimized gives its equations of motion. These equations are cyclic and closed. They are wave equations. A wave is the most efficient way energy may propagate between two points. In the economic sphere the wealth of an economy is the amplitude of the wave. The wave has a near-infinite number of modes so it is not decomposable, not predictable in its cyclicity. The amplitude as a function of time varies to a peak and reverses to a trough. Humans express the upside of the wave as pleasure and the downside as pain. When you integrate, sum up the area under the economic wave, you find that total action is gauge invariant. That means we all get wealthier over time but many of us get relatively poorer over periods. When this starts happening others try to prevent this from happening. They say, it's only fair since we are all equal. The idea is to prop up the downside of the wave so that the peak is distributed over time. This is called extended prosperity. The central bank is the agent of wave maintenance. When a wave is prevented from undergoing its natural efficient movement between points in time, the conservation of total energy comes into play and a giant debt well is formed. It is the nature of waves to oscillate and so if you try to prevent them from doing it naturally, they do it unnaturally and they have to go to extremes to catch up with what is owed over time. Thus the total area under the wave's phase is conserved. The first order estimate of this value is just time x average wealth, say 1 year and $100 billion = 100 billion dollar-years. A square can be fit under the amplitude with that area. The generalizations to n orders where n approaches infinity is proportional to the work in man-hours expended to create the wealth. The '30s were deep and short. The '80s were shallow and long. The depression of the '30s started in '31 and ended in '37. The depression of the '80s started in '74 and ended in '89 although some take '80 or '82 as the beginning and '95 as the end. In any event the distribution over time was about twice as great and engineered by the FED to be mild partially because during the '30s the FED made horrendous mistakes like tightening money to prevent the outflux of gold from the country. The tightening exacerbated a developing recession into a deep one. So in the late '70s the FED attempted to compensate for that mistake and prop the wealth amplitude with money created by fiat rather than encouraging work. They thought they had learned from history. They realized their mistake in '79 , but by that time the situation was beyond their control. The market had control, that is, the natural wave, and it owed plenty to the down phase. Then in '82 the FED came back after staying out and started propping again because they were concerned that another depression was near. These guys are true believers in Keynes' liquidity trap. They don't believe we the people can get ourselves out by work. And they have no power to push on our strings to get us to work, but they sure can pull on them. The propping had the effect of making the mid '80s not too bad. Only smoke stack states had it tough.