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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John F. Summa who wrote (571)	8/12/1999 12:15:00 PM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

John, "J.T. I agree about the next rally, as it is likely to be the best time to unload or hedge longs, and get ready to get short when the market starts screaming south on a failed rally. I trade OEX options over 1-3 day periods so I look for each twist and turn, but certainly somewhere near the top of this next rally would be a good place to setup a put backspread or short some of the "generals" as they begin to "crack." But I would not be surprised to see more investors pile-in, in spite of what we already know, since afterall this is still a bubble and a mania, and many may still be living in a fantasy of eternally higher prices (i.e., the public investor)." Excellent analysis. The time may be right now. We are going into the PPI report tomorrow. And if the Columbia Inflation Index is any true sign of things to come, either tomorrows PPI or Tuesday CPI report should show an uptick in inflation (which I believe is only filtering in now and will be shortlived). Columbian Inflation Index has been up 4 months in a row and this is a good early indicator for PPI/CPI and one of Mr. G.'s favs. Market does not want to see any uptick in inflation in light of last weeks bad #'s. The buzz on the street would go from 1/4 point hike to 1/2 point hike and send chills down the back of the market. I believe Mr. G will only raise 1/4 regardless. Best, J.T. Best,